03/11 → 03/12 → 03/13 → 03/18 → 03/19 → 03/20 (Fri Quad Witching) | SPY: $676 → $666 → $662 → $661 → $660 → $649 (-1.43%)
Options CSV Side Decomposition: 03/11, 03/12, 03/18, 03/19 (prior days), 03/20 (430 trades, $66.3M). WL1 recon data: 03/20. HEADLINE: Record Quad Witching OpEx. 21/23 names BEARISH on darkpool Layer 1. Only EL and TJX green. The defensive rotation thesis that showed life on 03/13 is DEAD — staples are now distributing alongside everything else. PG printed $7.5B in darkpool volume (85% at bid). Total sector DP: $15.9B.
REGIME DASHBOARD
FED:NEUTRAL — Gate OPEN for shorts. Stagflation trap: cannot cut (PPI 3.9% core), cannot hike (NFP -93K). FOMC 03/18 held. Zero cuts priced 2026. Rate hikes discussed.
RATE:SAFE HAVEN DOLLAR (10Y↑ + DXY↑) — TNX range 98.3 (DOMINANT, #2 strongest trend). DXY range 50 (MODERATE, held).
DXY-OIL:SAFE HAVEN DOLLAR — Oil↑ (USO range 60.4 DOMINANT) + DXY↑ → bearish metals. HARD GATE for metals ACTIVE.
ISM:52.4 INFLATIONARY EXPANSION (Prices Paid 70.5, confirmed). +2 bullish inputs for cyclicals.
⚠️ ISM Prices Paid 70.5 = extreme input cost pressure on consumer staples margins.
Pipeline: Urea +59% YTD, Soybean oil +36%, Wheat +20%, Gasoline +30%+. PPI +0.7% MoM (est +0.3%).
CREDIT:HYG TREND DEATH — range 5 (collapsed from 52 in one session). Gate DETERIORATING → approaching CLEAR.
200DMA:SPX BELOW for 5+ sessions → +2 bearish convergence inputs. SPX 6,506 vs 200DMA ~6,760 (3.75% gap, WIDENING).
EARNINGS:BEARISH — 6 consecutive mega-cap beats sold off. +1 bearish input.
VIX:Range 68 (DOMINANT) — massive resurgence from 40. Vol expansion is the #3 strongest trend.
XLP:Range 37 (MODERATE uptrend) — BUT: 21/23 names bearish on 03/20 contradicts ETF-level trend. Likely stale from prior rotation days.
SECTOR-SPECIFIC: INPUT COST SQUEEZE
ISM Prices Paid at 70.5 is the single most important number for staples. This means raw material costs (commodities, packaging, transport) are surging. Diesel approaching 2022 highs (~$5/gal) hits every staples supply chain. Companies with pricing power (PG, KO, PM, PEP) can pass through; others (ADM, BG, GIS, NKE) get squeezed. The 03/13 "rotation into staples" was a 1-day event that completely reversed on 03/18. Quad Witching (03/20) accelerated the reversal with record volume.
6-DAY DARKPOOL LAYER 1 SCORECARD
Date
SPY
🐂
🐻
⚖
Signal
Key Pattern
03/11
-0.13%
3
20
0
BROAD DIST
Only SHOP/ADM/CHWY green
03/12
-1.52%
6
14
3
BIFURCATED
Pricing-power rotation begins
03/13
-0.57%
12
8
3
ROTATION PEAK
12 names accumulating — peak defense play
03/18
-1.40%
1
21
1
ROTATION DEAD
All pricing-power names reversed
03/19
-0.25%
3
18
2
STILL DISTRIBUTING
Only KR, LULU, TJX green
03/20
-1.43%
2
21
0
WASHOUT
Record vol. Only EL, TJX green. PG $7.5B at-bid.
THE 6-DAY ARC: ROTATION → DEATH → WASHOUT
03/11: Broad distribution (3 bull). 03/12: Bifurcation — pricing power names separate. 03/13: Peak rotation (12 bull, best day). 03/18: Rotation DEAD (1 bull). 03/19: Still distributing (3 bull). 03/20: Washout (2 bull). The defensive rotation thesis lasted exactly ONE day (03/13). Five of six days are distribution. This is not a sector holding up — it's a sector caught in the same downdraft with a one-day head fake.
ROLLING SCORECARD — ALL 23 TICKERS
Ticker
Price
Chg
DP L1 Strip (11→12→13→18→19→20)
GEX
Opts Side
Conf
Ladder
ADM
$66.17
-3.60%
SBBSSS
-4.4
BEAR
HIGH
—
BG
$118.15
-3.19%
BBS——S
-1.2
BEAR
HIGH
—
CHWY
$23.37
-3.75%
B——SSS
+0.4
BEAR
LOW
—
CLX
$106.15
-0.44%
S——SSS
-0.7
BEAR
HIGH
—
COST
$972.33
-0.25%
S——SSS
+2.4
NTRL
MOD
—
EL
$85.92
+0.37%
SSBSSB
+0.7
BULL
LOW
—
GIS
$37.01
-1.31%
SSNSSS
-0.9
NTRL
HIGH
DIST(STR)
HD
$320.75
-2.27%
SS—SSS
+1.0
BEAR
HIGH
ACCU(MOD)⚠️
KMB
$98.20
-0.39%
SSBSSS
-0.2
BEAR
MOD
—
KO
$74.75
-1.06%
SNBSSS
-3.7
BEAR
MOD
—
KR
$73.20
-0.76%
NBBSBS
-4.4
BULL
HIGH
—
LOW
$224.63
-2.21%
SSSSSS
+2.4
BULL
HIGH
—
LULU
$162.82
-1.66%
SSSBBS
-2.2
BEAR
HIGH
DIST(MOD)
MKC
$53.23
-1.52%
SSBSSS
+9.6
NTRL
LOW
—
MO
$64.47
-0.92%
SBBSNS
-2.0
BULL
HIGH
—
NKE
$52.37
-2.00%
SSSSNS
-0.3
BEAR
HIGH
—
PEP
$150.04
-1.77%
SSBSSS
-0.2
BULL
HIGH
—
PG
$144.28
-0.39%
SSNSSS
+1.5
BULL
MOD
—
PM
$163.11
-0.16%
—BBSSS
-1.5
BULL
LOW
—
SHOP
$116.78
-4.57%
BSSSSS
+0.1
BEAR
HIGH
—
TGT
$113.26
-1.06%
SSBSSS
-0.05
BULL
LOW
—
TJX
$154.98
+0.19%
SSSSBB
+0.2
NTRL
LOW
ACCU(MOD)
WMT
$119.02
-1.51%
SBBSSS
+7.7
BULL
LOW
—
DP L1 strip: B=BUY (price up on volume), S=SELL (price down on volume), N=NEUTRAL. Options Side = side-adjusted from 03/20 CSV. Conf = Confidence Gate (unknown side %). GEX from WL1 recon 03/20.
OPTIONS SIDE DECOMPOSITION — 03/20 SECTOR AGGREGATE
SECTOR TOTAL: $66.3M across 430 trades
Unknown Side: 29.4% → Confidence: MODERATE
Convergence eligible: YES (under 30% threshold, barely)
SIDE DECOMPOSITION:
Calls Bought: $12.4M | Calls Sold: $13.2M
Puts Bought: $9.9M | Puts Sold: $11.3M
NET DIRECTIONAL:
Bullish (CB + PS): $23.7M
Bearish (PB + CS): $23.1M
Net: +$542K → CONTESTED / NEUTRAL
This is a DRAMATIC shift from 03/19's -$479.6M PEAK BEARISH.
But context matters: 03/20 was Quad Witching OpEx. Premium
dropped from $1.12B (03/19) to $66.3M (03/20) — a 94% decline
in total activity. OpEx expiration mechanics dominate, not
directional conviction. The "neutral" read is low-signal noise
from expiration, not a genuine shift in sentiment.
PRIOR DAY COMPARISON (03/19 → 03/20)
03/19: $1.12B total | 2.8% unk (HIGH) | -$479.6M BEARISH
03/20: $66.3M total | 29.4% unk (MOD) | +$542K NEUTRAL
The 94% premium collapse is the story. Institutions expressed their conviction on 03/19 (pre-OpEx positioning). 03/20 is mechanical expiration noise. The 03/19 signal carries forward as the directional read — not today's thin tape.
KEY TICKER SIDE DECOMPOSITION CARDS
NKE — $8.4M | HIGH confidence | BEARISH (-$3.6M)
Side: CB=$278K | CS=$1.5M | PB=$4.2M | PS=$1.8M
Whale: 15 trades | Bull=$1.0M | Bear=$4.6M
DTE: 6-30d=$2.4M | 31-180d=$3.4M | 180d+=$2.4M
Top: $2.3M P75 May15 ToAsk 🐻 | $995K P62 Mar27 AtAsk 🐻
$385K P65 Jan27 Split | $354K P50 Jan27 AtAsk 🐻
STRONG BEARISH: $4.2M in put BUYING vs only $278K in call buying.
Whales 4.6:1 bearish. Mix of near-term (Mar/Apr) and LEAPS (Jan 2027)
at $50-65 strikes — 20-40% below spot ($52.37). Deep conviction this
name has further to fall. NKE DP: 5 of 6 days SELL. Negative gamma.
Combined signal: BEARISH convergence — DP + options + price aligned.
HD — $3.1M | HIGH confidence | BEARISH (-$635K)
Side: CB=$111K | CS=$208K | PB=$1.6M | PS=$1.0M
Whale: Bull=$622K | Bear=$1.5M
Top: $780K P300 Apr17 ToAsk 🐻 | $456K P315 Apr17 BlwBid 🐂
$162K P310 Apr17 ToAsk 🐻 | $157K P300 Apr17 ToAsk 🐻
HOUSING-SENSITIVE BEAR: 2.4:1 bearish whale ratio. Multiple
$300P Apr17 prints (all Ask-side = bought). HD at $320 → $300
puts = 6.5% downside target. Ladder says ACCUMULATION(MOD) but
today is SELL with LADDER CONTRAST warning — stale label-derived
classification. 6 of 6 recent days are Layer 1 SELL. Price -2.27%.
Housing + rate sensitivity in a rising-yield environment = structural bear.
ADM — $683K | HIGH confidence | BEARISH (-$426K)
Side: CB=$0 | CS=$473K | PB=$66K | PS=$113K
Top: $360K C65 Apr17 ToBid 🐻 (CALL WRITING)
$50K C100 Dec18 ToBid 🐻
NAIVE vs SIDE DIVERGENT: Naive says CALLS dominant ($504K vs $179K).
Side-adjusted: $473K in calls SOLD at bid = BEARISH, not bullish.
Classic call-writing setup — institutions collecting premium expecting
the stock to stay below $65. Price -3.6% today on FAST tape.
Ag-commodity squeeze (ISM Prices Paid 70.5) hits margin structure.
CLX — $645K | HIGH confidence | BEARISH (-$317K)
Side: CB=$0 | CS=$392K | PB=$89K | PS=$164K
Top: $343K C105 Apr17 ToBid 🐻 (CALL WRITING)
NAIVE vs SIDE DIVERGENT: Naive: CALLS dominant. Side-adjusted: $392K
in calls SOLD (100% of classifiable calls). Zero call buying.
Combined with $89K in put buying → net BEARISH. Institutional
expectation: CLX stays below $105 through April OpEx.
4 of last 4 days SELL on DP. Packaging/chemical cost inflation squeeze.
KMB — $412K | MOD confidence | BEARISH (-$352K)
Side: CB=$0 | CS=$352K (100%) | PB=$0 | PS=$0
Top: $188K C100 Apr17 ToBid 🐻 | $104K C100 Jan28 ToBid 🐻
$60K C110 May15 BlwBid 🐻
NAIVE vs SIDE DIVERGENT: Every single classifiable call was SOLD.
Including a $104K LEAPS call sale at $100 Jan 2028 — institution
doesn't think KMB sees $100 for 2 years. All 4 trades at bid or
below bid. Combined with DP: 4 of last 5 days SELL.
KO — $1.3M | MOD confidence | BEARISH (-$336K)
Side: CB=$237K | CS=$533K | PB=$180K | PS=$140K
Top: $201K C75 Apr17 ToBid 🐻 | $162K C77.5 May15 AtBid 🐻
$142K P80 May01 AtAsk 🐻
NAIVE vs SIDE DIVERGENT: Naive says CALLS dominant ($980K).
Side: 69% of calls were SOLD. Net bearish. Plus $142K in $80 put
buying (8% OTM). KO DP: $1.44B total on 03/20, at-bid heavy.
Pricing-power name getting hit — even Coca-Cola can't hide in
this tape. GEX deeply negative (-3.7) = dealers amplify moves down.
TJX — SOLE SURVIVOR | BULLISH DP + ACCU Ladder
Price: $154.98 (+0.19%) — one of only 2 green names
DP: $434M total | 66% demand | ACCUMULATION LADDER (10/15 days, $522M net)
Options: $769K — but 68.9% unknown side → LOW confidence, excluded
TJX is the standout: 2 consecutive accumulation days (03/19, 03/20)
while 21/23 peers distributed. Positive gamma (+0.2), dealer SHORT
(buy dips), demand-heavy positional context (66% AtAsk).
CAUTION: Options data is LOW confidence (excluded from convergence).
The accumulation ladder is label-derived in a slow tape (label
reliability HIGH), which makes it more credible than most. But
a single-name bullish call in a sector-wide washout requires
additional confirmation next week.
SIDE DECOMPOSITION DIVERGENCE SUMMARY
Ticker
Naive
Side-Adj
Match?
Key Pattern
ADM
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
$360K call writing at $65
BG
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
$253K LEAPS call sold at $100
CLX
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
100% of calls SOLD
KMB
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
100% of calls SOLD incl LEAPS
KO
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
69% of calls SOLD + put buying
LULU
CALLS
BEAR
DIVERGENT
$747K call SOLD at $80 LEAPS
PEP
PUTS
BULL
DIVERGENT
Call buying > put buying after side adj
LOW
PUTS
BULL
DIVERGENT
$421K calls bought + $302K puts sold
WMT
PUTS
BULL
DIVERGENT
$4M puts sold at bid = bullish unwind
NKE
PUTS
BEAR
MATCH
$4.2M put buying confirmed
HD
PUTS
BEAR
MATCH
$1.6M put buying confirmed
SHOP
PUTS
BEAR
MATCH
$527K PB + $1.3M CS
MO
CALLS
BULL
MATCH
$823K calls bought at ask
9 of 20 active tickers show naive-vs-side DIVERGENCE. Without side decomposition, 6 names that are actually BEARISH would have been classified BULLISH (call writing misread as call buying).
ONLY name with 2 consecutive accumulation days + ACCU ladder (MOD, $522M). Demand-heavy (66%). Options LOW conf (excluded). Sole survivor — requires confirmation.
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTARY
THE DEFENSIVE ROTATION IS DEAD — WHAT'S NEXT?
The 6-day arc tells the full story. The 03/13 rotation into staples (12/23 names accumulating) was a one-session event, completely reversed by 03/18. Quad Witching on 03/20 produced the worst single-day reading: 21/23 names distributing, record darkpool volume ($15.9B), and PG alone printing $7.5B (85% at-bid). The sector that was supposed to be the safe harbor is sinking with the ship.
The ISM Prices Paid problem: At 70.5, input costs are rising faster than most staples names can pass through to consumers. The margin squeeze is real — ADM, BG, GIS, CLX, KMB are all getting hit on the cost side. Even pricing-power names (KO, PEP, PG) are distributing.
Three names to watch next week:
1. TJX — the sole survivor. If accumulation continues Monday into lighter post-OpEx volume, this is the only potential long in the sector. Needs options confirmation (today's data was unusable).
2. LULU — reported earnings 03/20. The $416M pre-earnings put loading on 03/19 was the most aggressive positioning in either consumer sector. Post-earnings reaction is the key signal.
3. HD/LOW — housing-sensitive names in a rising-yield environment (TNX range 98.3). Both have been 6/6 SELL on DP. If 10Y keeps climbing, these have structural downside.
POST-OPEX RESET WARNING
03/20 was Quad Witching — the largest options expiration of the year. -$25.8B in total put delta expired across the market. Darkpool volumes were 2-10x normal for many names. The next 2-3 sessions (03/23-03/25) will reveal the "real" flow once OpEx mechanics are removed. Signal quality improves dramatically after the expiration overhang clears. All 03/20 DP signals should be weighted 50% vs normal given the expiration distortion.
Maverick 5.8 — Consumer Staples 6-Day Rolling Institutional Flow Analysis
Data: WL1 recon 03/20 (23 tickers) | Options CSV 03/20 (430 trades, $66.3M, Side Decomposed) | Darkpool CSV 03/20 ($15.9B total) | Prior artifact: consumer_sector_5day_rolling_0311_0319.html
Options aggregate confidence: MODERATE (29.4% unknown — barely under 30% threshold). 5 individual tickers at LOW confidence (excluded from convergence).
Regime: Fed NEUTRAL | Rate SAFE HAVEN DOLLAR | ISM 52.4 INFLATIONARY EXPANSION | Credit HYG TREND DEATH | 200DMA BELOW 5+ sessions | Earnings BEARISH
Framework version 5.8 (Dollar Governs Commodities + Range Regime). Generated 03/22/26.