MAVERICK 5.8 — Industrials: Quad Witching Wipeout

1-Day Full Side Decomposition | Record Quad Witching OpEx | 84 Tickers

Fri 03/20/26 — SPY $648.57 (-1.43%) | 76/84 bearish DP. 10/25 side divergences. Prior ⭐⭐⭐ airlines + space FLIP BEARISH on side. PL sole $10M+ confirmed bull.

Record Quad Witching Demolishes Prior Bull Cases

76 of 84 names bearish on DP Layer 1 — the broadest bearish session tracked. Only BKSY, FDX, FLY, PL, SATS showed bullish signals. Prior ⭐⭐⭐ calls (DAL, UAL, PWR) all flipped to distribution. 10 of 25 options-active tickers diverge between naive and side — ASTS ($26.7M, naive BULL → side BEAR), RKLB ($15.6M, naive BULL → side BEAR), DAL ($4.6M, naive BULL → side BEAR). PL at $14.6M BULLISH confirmed is the sole standout.

01 — Regime Dashboard

Fed

NEUTRAL

Gate open. Zero cuts 2026. Hikes discussed.

Rate

SAFE HAVEN $

TNX 98.3 DXY 50. Risk-off.

ISM

52.4 EXP ✅

Inflationary. Prices Paid 70.5. Stagflation risk.

Credit

TREND DEATH

HYG range 5. Gate → CLEAR.

Sector Context

SPX below 200DMA 5+ sessions (+2 bear). VIX 68 (DOMINANT). XLI range 19 (WEAK). Earnings regime BEARISH. ISM sole tailwind but stagflation fingerprint (Prices Paid 70.5, falling New Orders + Production). Airlines face USO range 60.4 headwind. -$25.8B put delta expired — floor GONE.

02 — Scorecard (84 Tickers)

Tkr	$	Chg	DP	Ldr	Opt Side	Dvg	Tier
CAT	680.88	-1.13%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR		⚠️
ASTS	89.93	-4.42%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
BA	195.12	-3.01%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
RKLB	67.23	-6.53%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
PL	33.83	25.48%	BULL	—	BULL		⭐⭐
UAL	89.95	-4.46%	BEAR	ACC(M)	NEUT	⚡	⚠️
RTX	198.16	-1.28%	BEAR	—	NEUT	⚡	🐻
UBER	73.89	-1.92%	BEAR	DIS(E)	BULL	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
ONDS	10.06	-6.42%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
GE	286.79	-1.65%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
FDX	358.85	0.77%	BULL	ACC(M)	BULL		⭐⭐⭐
FIX	1356.75	-6.08%	BEAR	—	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
DAL	63.44	-2.42%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
SATS	109.84	0.67%	BULL	—	NEUT	⚡	⭐
RCAT	13.25	-12.45%	BEAR	ACC(M)	NEUT		⚠️
MMM	141.20	-1.06%	BEAR	—	BULL	⚡	⚠️
PWR	555.39	-3.90%	BEAR	ACC(S)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
ESLT	920.75	-3.69%	NEUT	—	BEAR	⚡	🐻
LMT	627.43	-1.58%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	🐻
APD	281.01	-1.11%	BEAR	DIS(M)	NEUT	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
LUNR	17.83	-5.71%	BEAR	ACC(E)	NEUT		⚠️
FLY	23.22	1.13%	BULL	DIS(S)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
LIN	488.15	-0.34%	BEAR	DIS(E)	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
ACHR	5.76	-4.16%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
LUV	39.41	-3.57%	BEAR	—	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
HON	221.50	-3.29%	BEAR	—	BULL	⚡	⚠️
FTAI	230.03	-4.21%	BEAR	ACC(E)	BULL		⭐⭐
UPS	95.86	-0.72%	BEAR	—	NEUT		🐻
DE	559.73	-1.38%	BEAR	—	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
VSAT	46.39	-10.99%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	🐻
AVAV	197.72	-6.45%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR		⭐⭐🐻
MTZ	300.58	-3.88%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
MOD	196.55	-2.15%	BEAR	—	NEUT	⚡	🐻
CNR	107.17	0.07%	LEAN	—	BEAR		🐻
HII	407.98	-2.50%	BEAR	—	NEUT	⚡	🐻
HWM	231.21	-0.74%	BEAR	ACC(E)	BULL	⚡	⭐⭐
NOC	706.95	-1.01%	BEAR	—	NEUT	⚡	🐻
AXON	496.27	-1.18%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
TDG	1177.39	-1.22%	BEAR	—	BULL	⚡	⚠️
UNP	234.92	0.32%	BULL	DIS(M)	NEUT	⚡	⚠️
WHR	52.26	-3.65%	BEAR	DIS(E)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐⭐🐻
BKSY	26.09	1.79%	BULL	—	BULL		⭐⭐
GD	345.78	-1.10%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
KTOS	84.62	-8.79%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
FAST	43.76	-1.64%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
RDW	9.20	-4.47%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	🐻
UMAC	14.87	-20.05%	BEAR	—	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
JBLU	4.03	-1.95%	BEAR	—	BULL	⚡	🐻
BAH	79.95	-1.09%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
KRMN	99.38	-6.20%	BEAR	ACC(M)	BEAR	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
ETN	356.80	-0.95%	BEAR	DIS(M)	BEAR		⭐⭐⭐🐻
JOBY	9.23	-4.75%	BEAR	DIS(E)	NEUT	⚡	⭐⭐🐻
CRS	362.40	-4.17%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
DPRO	5.66	-13.46%	NEUT	—	BULL	⚡	⭐
AMTM	26.80	-1.47%	BEAR	—	BULL		⚠️
AGX	473.85	-1.26%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
ATI	141.80	-3.89%	BEAR	DIS(M)	—		⭐⭐🐻
CACI	606.38	-1.07%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
CMI	533.54	-1.24%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
CW	671.19	-2.95%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
DCH	5.35	-1.65%	BEAR	ACC(E)	—		⚠️
DRS	43.82	-3.65%	BEAR	ACC(S)	—		⚠️
GEMI	5.97	-0.67%	NEUT	—	—		—
HEI	275.16	-0.72%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
LDOS	165.87	-0.05%	LEAN	DIS(M)	—		🐻
MRCY	77.26	-0.71%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
NXT	114.39	-3.66%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
OSK	140.46	-2.61%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
PDYN	6.34	-4.80%	NEUT	—	—		—
POR	50.97	-2.47%	BEAR	ACC(M)	—		⚠️
POWL	516.00	-1.79%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
PRIM	138.82	-2.98%	BEAR	DIS(M)	—		⭐⭐🐻
PSN	50.04	-0.24%	NEUT	—	—		—
RGR	38.98	-1.19%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
RNMBY	344.90	-4.19%	NEUT	—	—		—
SAIC	96.74	-0.43%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
SPXC	186.77	-7.70%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
STRL	401.61	-6.99%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
SWBI	14.18	-0.07%	NEUT	—	—		—
SWX	83.58	-3.06%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
TDY	616.18	-2.98%	BEAR	—	—		🐻
TXT	88.77	0.09%	LEAN	—	—		—
WM	231.24	-1.11%	BEAR	ACC(E)	—		⚠️
WWD	353.35	-3.98%	BEAR	DIS(M)	—		⭐⭐🐻

53 bear / 7 bull / 18 conflicted. 10/25 diverge naive→side.

03 — Side Decomposition Catches

ASTS $89.93 (-4.42%)⚡ DVG | MOD

NAIVE: C $20.9M P $5.8M → BULLISH
SIDE: C-Buy $6.3M(30%) C-Sell $12.1M(58%) | P-Buy $4.7M(81%) P-Sell $889K(15%)
NET: Bull $7.2M vs Bear $16.8M → -$9.6M | Whales: 75
⚠ PRIOR ⭐⭐ BULL (ACCU 81%) → NOW $9.6M net BEAR. Largest divergence.

BEARISH | Net -$9.6M | 157 trades | ⚡ Diverges from naive BULLISH

BA $195.12 (-3.01%)BEARISH | HIGH

NAIVE: C $5.7M P $14.1M → BEARISH
SIDE: C-Buy $2.5M(44%) C-Sell $2.6M(46%) | P-Buy $10.6M(75%) P-Sell $2.9M(21%)
NET: Bull $5.4M vs Bear $13.2M → -$7.8M | Whales: 37
PRIOR ⭐⭐⭐🐻 CONFIRMED. $7.8M net bearish, HIGH conf. Cumulative bears persist.

BEARISH | Net -$7.8M | 178 trades | Confirms naive

RKLB $67.23 (-6.53%)⚡ DVG | HIGH

NAIVE: C $9.2M P $6.4M → BULLISH
SIDE: C-Buy $4.2M(46%) C-Sell $4.1M(45%) | P-Buy $4.1M(64%) P-Sell $1.9M(30%)
NET: Bull $6.1M vs Bear $8.3M → -$2.1M | Whales: 45
⚠ PRIOR ⚠⭐⭐ V-Recovery → NOW $2.1M net BEAR, side FLIPS naive.

BEARISH | Net -$2.1M | 145 trades | ⚡ Diverges from naive BULLISH

PL $33.83 (25.48%)BULLISH | HIGH

NAIVE: C $10.6M P $4.1M → BULLISH
SIDE: C-Buy $6.2M(58%) C-Sell $3.3M(31%) | P-Buy $1.6M(39%) P-Sell $2.4M(59%)
NET: Bull $8.6M vs Bear $4.8M → +$3.8M | Whales: 32
✅ SOLE $10M+ CONFIRMED BULL. Naive + side agree. $3.75M net bullish.

BULLISH | Net +$3.8M | 110 trades | Confirms naive

DAL $63.44 (-2.42%)⚡ DVG | HIGH

NAIVE: C $2.7M P $1.9M → BULLISH
SIDE: C-Buy $208K(8%) C-Sell $2.4M(89%) | P-Buy $951K(50%) P-Sell $765K(40%)
NET: Bull $973K vs Bear $3.4M → -$2.4M | Whales: 14
⚠ PRIOR ⭐⭐⭐ BULL → NOW BEAR on side. $35.3M Apr calls 03/19 did NOT return.

BEARISH | Net -$2.4M | 53 trades | ⚡ Diverges from naive BULLISH

CAT $680.88 (-1.13%)BEARISH | LOW

NAIVE: C $14.0M P $17.5M → BEARISH
SIDE: C-Buy $157K(1%) C-Sell $4.8M(34%) | P-Buy $4.5M(26%) P-Sell $5.1M(29%)
NET: Bull $5.3M vs Bear $9.3M → -$4.0M | Whales: 30
⚠ LOW confidence (>30% unknown side). $31.5M total but directional read unreliable.

BEARISH | Net -$4.0M | 38 trades | Confirms naive

UBER $73.89 (-1.92%)⚡ DVG | LOW

NAIVE: C $2.9M P $6.4M → BEARISH
SIDE: C-Buy $374K(13%) C-Sell $205K(7%) | P-Buy $710K(11%) P-Sell $2.3M(36%)
NET: Bull $2.7M vs Bear $915K → +$1.8M | Whales: 9
⚡ Side FLIPS: naive BEAR → side BULL ($1.8M net). LOW conf limits weight.

BULLISH | Net +$1.8M | 59 trades | ⚡ Diverges from naive BEARISH

FDX $358.85 (0.77%)BULLISH | MOD

NAIVE: C $3.1M P $2.2M → BULLISH
SIDE: C-Buy $1.8M(58%) C-Sell $438K(14%) | P-Buy $1.0M(48%) P-Sell $716K(33%)
NET: Bull $2.5M vs Bear $1.5M → +$1.0M | Whales: 16
✅ BULLISH confirmed on DP + side. One of 5 green names.

BULLISH | Net +$1.0M | 45 trades | Confirms naive

04 — Conviction Tiers

Bear Convergence

Tkr	$	Tier	Signal
ETN	$356.80	⭐⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
WHR	$52.26	⭐⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
ACHR	$5.76	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
APD	$281.01	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts NEUT(MOD)
ASTS	$89.93	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(MOD)
ATI	$141.80	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, No opts
AVAV	$197.72	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(MOD)
AXON	$496.27	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
BA	$195.12	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
DAL	$63.44	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
DE	$559.73	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
FIX	$1356.75	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
FLY	$23.22	⭐⭐🐻	BULL DP, DIST ldr, Opts BEAR(MOD)
GD	$345.78	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
JOBY	$9.23	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts NEUT(HIGH)
KRMN	$99.38	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
KTOS	$84.62	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
LIN	$488.15	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts BEAR(LOW)
LUV	$39.41	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
ONDS	$10.06	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
PRIM	$138.82	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, No opts
PWR	$555.39	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
RKLB	$67.23	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
UBER	$73.89	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, Opts BULL(LOW)
UMAC	$14.87	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, NONE ldr, Opts BEAR(HIGH)
WWD	$353.35	⭐⭐🐻	BEAR DP, DIST ldr, No opts

Bullish Signals

Tkr	$	Tier	Signal
FDX	$358.85	⭐⭐⭐	BULL DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BULL(MOD)
BKSY	$26.09	⭐⭐	BULL DP, NONE ldr, Opts BULL(HIGH)
FTAI	$230.03	⭐⭐	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BULL(HIGH)
HWM	$231.21	⭐⭐	BEAR DP, ACCU ldr, Opts BULL(HIGH)
PL	$33.83	⭐⭐	BULL DP, NONE ldr, Opts BULL(HIGH)

Conflicted (18 names)

AMTM, BAH, CAT, CRS, DCH, DRS, FAST, GE, HON, LUNR, MMM, MTZ, POR, RCAT, TDG, UAL, UNP, WM

05 — Prior 5-Day vs Quad Witching

Prior ⭐⭐⭐ Calls vs 03/20

Airlines (DAL, UAL): Were ⭐⭐⭐ BULL. DAL -3.64%, options FLIP BEAR on side. UAL -2.42%, $11.54M goes NEUTRAL. $35.3M Apr call buyer from 03/19 did not return. USO range 60.4 headwind persists.
Space (RKLB, ASTS): RKLB was ⚠⭐⭐ V-Recovery. Now -4.88%, $15.63M FLIPS BEAR. ASTS was ⭐⭐ BULL. Now -4.42%, $26.68M — largest sector divergence (naive BULL → side BEAR, $9.6M net).
Mfg Infra (PWR): Was ⭐⭐⭐ BULL (ACCU STR). Now -3.48%, $2M FLIPS BEAR. Ladder contrast flagged.
BA, GE: BA ⭐⭐⭐🐻 CONFIRMED ($19.81M BEAR, HIGH). GE $5.46M BULL on side — lone counter-signal.

06 — Forward Outlook

Post-OpEx Landscape

-$25.8B put delta expired. Mechanical floor GONE. Dealer delta flipped SHORT → dips amplified. Phase 2 ACTIVE per Rolling Tracker: bounce = sell zone. ISM 52.4 is sole macro support but stagflation fingerprint limits conviction. Airlines face oil headwind. Defense names distributed despite geopolitical tailwinds.

Watch list: PL (sole confirmed bull, $14.6M). GE ($5.46M BULL counter-signal vs prior ⭐⭐⭐🐻). FDX (BULL DP + side confirmed). ASTS/RKLB — if the side-bearish flow reverses next week, the 15-day accumulation ladders may still be valid. But for now, the quad witching tape overwhelmed everything.

Sources

Options: live_options_flow_0320.csv (55 matched). Darkpool: darkpool_summary_0320.csv (75 matched). WL1: industrials_2026-03-21_wl1.md (84 tickers). Tracker: MAVERICK_FLOW_TRACKER_ROLLING_0320_v7.md. Prior: industrials_materials_5day_rolling_0311_0319.html. Maverick 5.8. Side decomposition per Section 4.6.