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DAILY ANALYSIS

Daily Report — 03/26/26

Phase 3 Launches: -1.79% SPY, META Waterfall -7.96%, NVDA Flips Negative. 16 vs 4 Convergence — Highest Reading in Tracker History.

MAVERICK 5.8 — COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS: THURSDAY 03/26/26

"The bounce is dead. Phase 3 is here. Sixteen bearish inputs against four. NVDA — the last tech survivor — just flipped. The only question now is how deep, and whether ISM 04/01 accelerates or decelerates the waterfall."

PRICE ACTION — 03/26 (PHASE 3 DAY 1)

SPY: $645.09 (-1.79%)  ← Post-OpEx bounce DEAD. Worst day since 03/20.
QQQ: $573.79 (-1.70%)  ← Tech sold hard. Below weekly EM lower band.
IWM: $247.44 (-2.00%)  ← Small caps leading downside AGAIN.
DIA: $459.31 (-1.04%)

SPX: ~6,477 | 200 DMA gap: ~4.3% below (~6,760)
META: $547.54 (-7.96%) ← WORST mega-cap. Waterfall acceleration.
NVDA: $171.24 (-4.16%) ← Sole survivor CAPITULATED. See below.
GOOGL: $280.92 (-3.44%) ← Distribution campaign continues.
MSFT: $365.97 (-1.37%) ← Day 6 of put campaign.
AMZN: $207.54 (-1.97%)
AAPL: $252.89 (+0.11%) ← ONLY mega-cap green. Divergence.
TSLA: $372.18 (-3.27%)
MU: $356.00 (-7.34%)  ← Semis cracking.

INTRADAY CHARACTER:
Opened ~$654, sold off steadily all session to ~$645 by close.
NO bounce attempts held. Relentless selling from open to bell.
0DTE flow: Morning green → overwhelmingly RED by afternoon.
DEX: Sharply negative. Dealers SHORT delta across the board.

Day Character: This was a clean institutional distribution session — no disguise, no games. SPY opened near $654 and sold off in a nearly straight line to $645 by close. Unlike 03/25's "green tape with hidden liquidation," today's selling was on the surface for everyone to see. META's -7.96% crash was the marquee event, but the real story is the BREADTH: 983 tickers negative vs 858 positive in darkpool. Every sector except Energy was net bearish. Phase 3 is now active.

The NVDA Flip — Critical Signal: On 03/25, NVDA was the "sole mega-cap tech survivor" with +$2.29B darkpool accumulation (92.6% at-ask). Today: NVDA $1.0B volume but NET -$318M distribution. The last tech safe haven has fallen. Combined with AAPL's ongoing distribution (-$378M), there is now ZERO mega-cap tech accumulation in the market.

REGIME DASHBOARD (03/26 UPDATE)

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
FED REGIME: NEUTRAL (NO CHANGE — GATE OPEN FOR SHORTS)
  Balance sheet stable ~$6.58T. QT ongoing.
  Stagflation trap unchanged: cannot cut (PPI 3.9% core,
  ISM Prices Paid 70.5), cannot tighten (NFP -93K).
  FOMC 03/18: Hawkish hold. Hikes discussed. Zero cuts 2026.
  GATE STATUS: OPEN for index shorts. No constraint.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
RATE REGIME: SAFE HAVEN DOLLAR (10Y↑ + DXY↑)
  TNX: Range 85.9 (DOMINANT — strongest trend in market)
  DXY: 99.92, Range 61 (DOMINANT — upgraded from 50)
  10Y↑ + DXY↑ = RISK-OFF / Safe Haven Dollar. UNCHANGED.
  ⚠️ DXY range upgraded from MODERATE (50) → DOMINANT (61).
  Dollar strengthening is ACCELERATING.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
DXY-OIL REGIME: TRANSITIONING → DEFLATION RISK
  Oil: /CLK26 ~$93.79 (from $88.39 on 03/25 — BOUNCED)
  DXY: 99.92 — DOMINANT uptrend, Range 61
  Oil bouncing while DXY still rising = ambiguous.
  But net pattern still: DXY↑ + Oil volatile = SAFE HAVEN DOLLAR.
  ⚠️ DXY now at DOMINANT range (61) — HARD GATE for metals
  approaching. DXY >100 + range >40 = BLOCKED.
  Currently DXY 99.92 — literally $0.08 from hard block trigger.
  METALS GATE: HEADWIND → approaching BLOCKED.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ISM REGIME: 52.4 → EXPANSION (CONFIRMED ✅)
  Character: INFLATIONARY EXPANSION (Prices Paid 70.5)
  Next release: April 1, 2026 (5 CALENDAR DAYS)
  Convergence: +2 bullish for cyclicals/commodities.
  ⚠️ Sub-component divergence: New Orders + Production falling
  while Prices Paid elevated = STAGFLATION FINGERPRINT.
  April 1 ISM = CATALYST #1 for Phase 3.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
CREDIT REGIME: HYG DETERIORATING — PUT BUYING CONFIRMED
  HYG: ~$78.92, Range 30.8 (MODERATE)
  ⚠️ CRITICAL: HYG 79p (04/02) = 66,040 vol. HYG 78p = 75,000 vol.
  Institutions buying credit protection AGGRESSIVELY.
  Gate STATUS: DETERIORATING. Approaching cascade zone.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
200DMA STATUS: SPX BELOW — 9+ CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS
  SPX ~6,477 vs 200 DMA ~6,760 = 4.2% below (GAP WIDENING).
  Was 2.5% on 03/25. Now 4.2%. Moving AWAY, not toward.
  Convergence contribution: +2 bearish (confirmed trend break).
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
EARNINGS REACTION REGIME: BEARISH — 6 CONSECUTIVE (UNCHANGED)
  No new mega-cap earnings to change regime.
  MU: $356 today vs $382 on 03/25. Beat-and-sell CONTINUES.
  Convergence contribution: +1 bearish.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
EM RANGE REGIME (FRESH 03/27 DATA — UPDATED):
  DOMINANT TRENDS (Range >60):
    TNX:CGI: 85.9 (ACCELERATING — #1 strongest in market)
    VIX:     76   (DOMINANT vol expansion)
    DXY:     61   (UPGRADED from 50 → DOMINANT)

  MODERATE TRENDS (30-60):
    DIA:     31.4
    HYG:     30.8

  WEAK TRENDS (10-30):
    GLD:     17   (gold trend weakening)
    SPX:     11   (improving from REVERSED -5, now WEAK)

  DEAD/REVERSED (<10):
    SPY:     ~10  (boundary of DEAD/WEAK)
    QQQ:     ~4   (DEAD — was -33 on 03/20, recovering slowly)
    IWM:     ~4   (DEAD)

  ⚠️ CRITICAL REGIME SHIFTS vs 03/23 data:
  1. DXY: 50 → 61 (MODERATE → DOMINANT). Dollar acceleration.
  2. SPX: -5 → 11 (REVERSED → WEAK). Downtrend losing momentum.
  3. QQQ: -33 → 4 (REVERSED → DEAD). Still no trend, but NOT accelerating down.
  4. TNX: 96 → 86 (still DOMINANT but backing off slightly).
  5. VIX: 68 → 76 (DOMINANT AND STRENGTHENING).
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
VIX: 27.44 — DOMINANT RANGE (76), RE-EXPANDING
  VIX trend: 24.84. Current: 27.44 (10.5% ABOVE trend).
  Range 76 = DOMINANT and strengthening (was 68 on 03/20).
  Interpretation: Vol regime is NOT compressing. Expansion ACTIVE.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

DARKPOOL ANALYSIS — 03/26 (RULES 5 + 10 APPLIED)

Framework Application (Rules 5 + 10): On a -1.79% SPY day, the tape is FAST (>1.5% daily range). Per Rule 10 ("Labels Lie — Price Doesn't"), at-ask/at-bid labels have LOW reliability in a fast-declining tape. Layer 1 (Volume + Price Direction) overrides all label-based analysis. The raw CSV shows $3.99B aggregate "net positive" from labels — but that is NOISE. Price direction says DISTRIBUTION.

Ticker Volume Net (Labels) Price Chg Tape Layer 1 Verdict
SPY $6.14B +$1.79B -1.79% FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
QQQ $2.88B +$1.24B -1.70% FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
META $2.08B +$1.53B -7.96% EXTREME ❌ DISTRIBUTION
MU $1.42B +$1.30B -7.34% EXTREME ❌ DISTRIBUTION
IWM $1.15B +$222M -2.00% FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
NVDA $1.00B -$318M -4.16% EXTREME ❌ DISTRIBUTION
JPM $884M +$591M -1.27% NORMAL ⚠️ CONTESTED
V $624M -$624M down FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
TSLA $594M +$399M -3.27% FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
AVGO $530M -$355M down FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
BRK/B $509M -$509M down FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
LLY $460M -$413M -2.11% FAST ❌ DISTRIBUTION
AAPL $378M -$378M +0.11% SLOW ✅ DISTRIBUTION (Layer 2 confirms)
MSFT $377M +$230M -1.37% NORMAL ⚠️ CONTESTED

Breadth Analysis

DARKPOOL BREADTH — 03/26 (1,974 TICKERS)
Total Volume: $66.91B
Positive Net: 858 (43.5%)
Negative Net: 983 (49.8%)
Neutral:      133 (6.7%)

BREADTH: NEGATIVE — more tickers distributing than accumulating.
Rate of change: 03/23 was 354/524 bullish (67.6%).
              03/25 was 934/994 (48.4% positive, already deteriorating).
              03/26 is 858/983 (43.5% positive). ACCELERATING decline.

Key Darkpool Signals:

Sector Darkpool (from dashboard): Financial sector had the highest gross darkpool inflow ($16.94B). But sector NET amount shows: Financials strongly positive, Communication Services positive, Consumer Cyclical positive. Healthcare, Technology NEGATIVE. This aligns with the defensive rotation pattern continuing from 03/25.

OPTIONS SIDE DECOMPOSITION — 03/26

Market-Wide (34,192 trades, $20.95B total premium)

SIDE DECOMPOSITION — MARKET WIDE — 03/26
═══════════════════════════════════════════
Total Call Premium:    $8.25B
Total Put Premium:    $12.70B
Put/Call Ratio:       1.54x (put-heavy)

Calls Bought:         $3.14B
Calls Sold:           $2.69B
Puts Bought:          $6.92B
Puts Sold:            $4.06B

BULLISH FLOW: $7.19B (calls bought + puts sold)
BEARISH FLOW: $9.61B (calls sold + puts bought)

NET DIRECTIONAL: -$2.41B BEARISH
Unknown Sides: 15.2% → MODERATE confidence
═══════════════════════════════════════════

Puts bought ($6.92B) were 2.2x calls bought ($3.14B) — heavy institutional hedging.

Ticker Net Directional Confidence Direction
MSFT -$633.0M MOD (14%) 🔴 BEARISH — Day 6 campaign
META -$438.8M MOD (13%) 🔴 BEARISH — confirms DP
MU -$410.8M MOD (11%) 🔴 BEARISH — semis cracking
SPY -$371.9M MOD (21%) 🔴 BEARISH
TSLA -$338.3M MOD (13%) 🔴 BEARISH
QQQ +$284.4M MOD (21%) 🟢 BULLISH — hedge removal?
SPX +$109.2M HIGH (10%) 🟢 BULLISH — collar mechanics
NVDA -$103.4M MOD (21%) 🔴 BEARISH — dual-channel aligned
AMZN -$95.6M MOD (17%) 🔴 BEARISH
GOOG -$51.4M MOD (18%) 🔴 BEARISH
GLD -$47.4M MOD (13%) 🔴 BEARISH — metals under pressure
GOOGL -$41.3M MOD (13%) 🔴 BEARISH
IWM -$32.4M MOD (16%) 🔴 BEARISH
SLV -$11.6M MOD (15%) 🔴 BEARISH
XLE -$10.0M MOD (21%) 🔴 BEARISH
AAPL +$5.9M MOD (15%) 🟢 Neutral — tiny net
HYG -$2.6M MOD (18%) 🔴 BEARISH

Key Options Signals

Expiration Structure

0DTE/Same-Week (thru 03/27):  $4.80B (23%) — tactical
Near-term (8-45 DTE):         $5.43B (26%) — 2-6 week plays
April OpEx (04/17):            $3.46B (17%) — event positioning
June+ (longer-dated):          $7.26B (35%) — STRUCTURAL hedges

35% in June+ = this is NOT tactical panic. This is structural portfolio protection being built by institutions.

Hottest Put Chains

Hottest Call Chains

FLOW TIMELINE & DEALER MECHANICS

Flow Timeline (INDEX): The two largest-conviction timeline lines are BOTH in freefall:

Rate of change is ACCELERATING on the April expirations. Institutions are building massive put positions into the ISM (04/01) and April OpEx (04/17) catalysts. This is the highest-conviction flow signal in the entire dashboard.

Dealers Diary: 03/26 shows MASSIVE negative delta — the largest red bar in recent weeks. Dealers are short ~$5-6B delta on the 03/26 expiry cycle. Upcoming 03/31 also significantly negative. This means dealers will AMPLIFY downside moves — no floor mechanics active.

Market DEX: DEX continues sharply negative. Late March bars dominated by red. SPY price (orange line) declining. This is a trending market where dealer positioning reinforces the downtrend rather than providing support.

0DTE Structure: SPY opened ~$654, sold off to ~$644-645 in a nearly uninterrupted decline. 0DTE GEX shows massive negative gamma at 648 and 646 (largest red bars ~-$2B GEX), with positive gamma wall at 649-650. The negative gamma at lower strikes means dealers were actively SELLING into the decline, amplifying the downside. Classic negative gamma waterfall.

SECTOR ROTATION MAP — 03/26 (12-SECTOR RECON)

Sector Verdict Bullish Bearish Key Signal
Energy 🟢 BULLISH 23 18 ONLY positive sector. XOM +1.33%, CVX +1.29%
Utilities ⚪ MIXED 4 6 Traditional utils strong (AEP, CNP), growth weak (GEV -5.47%, BE -11%)
Comm Services ⚪ MIXED (lean 🔴) 5 6 TMUS holds, APP -10.41%, RDDT -8.86%
Consumer Staples ⚪ MIXED (lean 🔴) 7 15 COST bullish, PEP/KO distributing
Healthcare ⚪ MIXED (lean 🔴) 17 27 LLY -2.11%, UNH -0.92% distributing. Mid-caps accumulating.
Financials 🔴 BEARISH 11 28 JPM -1.27% ($891M volume), GS -2.28%, BAC -1.05%
Real Estate 🔴 BEARISH 2 4 DHI -1.26% (housing), rate sensitivity
Consumer Disc 🔴 BEARISH 0 21 TOTAL WIPEOUT. Zero bullish signals. MCD, DIS, BKNG all distributing.
Materials 🔴 BEARISH 1 25 Mining complex weak. GLD neutral. SLV neutral.
Technology 🔴 BEARISH 22 73 META -7.96%, NVDA -4.16%, MSFT -1.37%. AAPL sole green.
Industrials 🔴 BEARISH 14 63 MOST BEARISH sector. BA, CAT, CMI all under pressure.

Bottom Line: 9 of 11 sectors are bearish or lean-bearish. Only Energy is net positive. Consumer Discretionary is a complete wipeout (0 bullish out of 21 tickers). Industrials have the worst absolute breadth (63 bearish out of 84). This is not rotation — this is liquidation across the board.

CONVERGENCE COUNT — 03/26

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
CONVERGENCE — 03/26 (HIGHEST READING IN TRACKER HISTORY)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

BEARISH INPUTS (16):
 1. Rate Regime: Safe Haven Dollar (10Y↑ + DXY↑)          [Rank 2]
 2. DXY Regime: Range 61 DOMINANT (metals HEADWIND)        [Rank 1]
 3. Index Darkpool: SPY -1.79% = DISTRIBUTION (Layer 1)    [Rank 3]
 4. Index Options: -$2.41B NET BEARISH (MOD confidence)    [Rank 4]
 5. Equity Darkpool: 983 neg vs 858 pos (negative breadth) [Rank 5]
 6. Dealer DEX: Sharply negative (-$5-6B)                  [Rank 6]
 7. MSFT -$633M options (Day 6 campaign)                   [Rank 7]
 8. NVDA -$103M + -$318M DP (sole survivor FLIPPED)        [Rank 7]
 9. Flow Timeline: 04/01 + 04/17 STEEPENING                [Rank 8]
10. 200DMA: SPX below 9+ sessions (+2)                     [Rank n/a]
11. Earnings Reaction: 6 consecutive beat-and-sell (+1)     [Rank n/a]
12. Sector breadth: 9/11 sectors bearish                    [Overlay]
13. VIX Range: 76 DOMINANT uptrend                          [Overlay]
14. Credit: HYG deteriorating + put buying 66K+75K vol      [Overlay]
15. META waterfall -7.96% (dual-channel: DP + options)      [Rank 5+7]
16. AAPL Day 2 distribution (-$378M)                        [Rank 5]

BULLISH INPUTS (4):
 1. ISM: 52.4 EXPANSION (cyclicals supported)              [Rank 2.5]
 2. SPX options: +$109M (HIGH confidence — collar mechanics)[Rank 4]
 3. QQQ options: +$284M (MOD confidence — hedge removal?)   [Rank 4]
 4. Energy sector: 23 bullish vs 18 bearish                [Rank 5]

NET: 16 BEARISH vs 4 BULLISH
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
CONVERGENCE VERDICT: OVERWHELMINGLY BEARISH
Previous highest: 14 vs 3 (03/25). Gap widened to 12.
Fed gate CLEAR. All soft gates overridden by convergence.
This is the strongest directional signal in Maverick 5.8 history.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

PHASE 3 CATALYST TIMELINE

PHASE 3 — CATALYST ALIGNMENT (17-DAY KILL WINDOW)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
03/27 FRI — Quarter-end week begins. Window-dressing selling.
03/31 TUE — JPM collar EXPIRES. Put floor ($6,375-$6,500) +
            call cap (~$6,800) REMOVED. Structure that supported
            the bounce VANISHES. Q1 ends.
04/01 WED — ISM Manufacturing release. Stagflation fingerprint
            expected (Prices Paid elevated + New Orders declining).
            If <50: +2 bearish convergence, cyclicals collapse.
04/10 THU — March CPI. Captures Iran war oil shock fully.
            Super Core PPI already at 3.5%. CPI likely hot.
04/17 FRI — April OpEx. $3.46B positioned. Flow timeline shows
            massive put accumulation targeting this date.
            Coordinated bank put wall (04/17 expiry dominant).
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
All five catalysts ALIGNED in a 21-day window.
Phase 2 (Post-OpEx Bounce) killed the bounce.
Phase 3 (April Drop) kills the market.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

MULTI-DAY PATTERNS (ROLLING TRACKER UPDATE)

  1. MEGA-CAP TECH CAPITULATION — COMPLETE: AAPL Day 2 selling (-$378M). NVDA flipped from +$2.29B to -$318M. MSFT Day 6 put campaign (cumulative -$2.5B+). META -7.96% waterfall. GOOGL -3.44%. AMZN -1.97%. ZERO mega-caps accumulating. The AI concentration thesis (NVDA as sole survivor) is DEAD.
  2. DEFENSIVE ROTATION — STALLING: 03/25 showed healthcare 87%, staples 77%, financials 74% accumulation. Today: healthcare 17 vs 27 (bearish flip), financials 11 vs 28 (bearish), staples 7 vs 15 (bearish). The defensive rotation that held on 03/23-03/25 is BREAKING DOWN. When defensives fail after cyclicals fail, that's WATERFALL territory.
  3. ENERGY SOLE SURVIVOR: XOM +1.33%, CVX +1.29%. 23 vs 18 sector breadth. Oil bounced to $93.79. Energy is the ONLY sector with net positive flow. But ISM 04/01 could destroy this thesis if demand destruction signals intensify.
  4. FLOW TIMELINE ACCELERATION: April expiries (04/01 and 04/17) both in freefall on the timeline chart. Institutions loading puts for the catalyst window. Rate of change steepening. This is the highest-conviction structural bet in the market.
  5. CREDIT DETERIORATION BUILDING: HYG 79p (66,040 vol) + HYG 78p (75,000 vol) for 04/02. Institutions buying credit protection ahead of quarter-end. HYG at 78.92 with range 30.8. If HYG breaks $78.93 (the cascade trigger from the tracker), credit spreads blow out and the entire credit gate flips from DETERIORATING to ACTIVE.
  6. DXY DOMINANT → METALS BLOCKED: DXY range upgraded from 50 (MODERATE) to 61 (DOMINANT). DXY at 99.92 — $0.08 from 100. When DXY crosses 100 with range >40, the metals hard block ACTIVATES. GLD range already weak (17), SLV effectively dead. Gold/silver thesis is INVALID until DXY reverses.

DATA FRESHNESS

Data Freshness Check — 03/26/26:
- Rolling Tracker: v10 (03/25 data — update pending with 03/26)
- Darkpool CSV: 03/26 ✅ (1,974 tickers)
- Options Flow CSV: 03/26 ✅ (34,192 trades, $20.95B)
- EM Data: 03/27 projections ✅ (zones + range + base)
- Dashboard PDFs: 03/26 ✅ (darkpool 4-panel + options 15-panel)
- Recon Data: 03/26 ✅ (12 sector chunks, per-ticker analysis)
- ISM: 52.4 (March 3 release) — next: April 1
- Dashboard Screenshots: 03/26 ✅ (user-provided inline)

EXPECTED MOVES — 03/27 (FRIDAY)

Product Close Daily EM Upper Lower 2σ Upper 2σ Lower
SPX 6,477 ±74.38 6,552 6,403 6,626 6,328
SPY $645.09 ±$7.61 $652.70 $637.48 $660.31 $629.87
QQQ ~$578 ±$6.03 ~$584 ~$572 ~$590 ~$566
IWM $247.43 ±$4.44 $251.87 $243.00 $256.31 $238.56

EM Zones (for 03/27): SPX near LOWER band of daily zone (downside -1.13%, upside 5.04%). Positioned for continued weakness. VIX near upper zone. DXY near mid-zone. TLT near lower zone (rates still pressing higher). TNX:CGI near upper zone (rates dominant).

BOTTOM LINE

Phase 3 is live. The post-OpEx bounce (03/23-03/25) exhausted itself exactly as the tracker predicted. Today's -1.79% decline broke below every bounce support level. The convergence count hit 16 vs 4 — the widest gap in Maverick 5.8 history. Every mega-cap tech name is now distributing (NVDA was the last to flip). Defensive rotation is breaking down (healthcare and financials turned bearish). The only pocket of strength is Energy.

Looking ahead: The 21-day kill window runs from 03/27 through 04/17. Five catalysts are aligned: quarter-end window dressing (03/27-03/31), JPM collar expiry (03/31), ISM release (04/01), March CPI (04/10), and April OpEx (04/17). The flow timeline shows institutions are already positioned for this window with massive put accumulation in April expirations.

The key question is not IF the market drops further, but HOW FAST. A clean ISM print above 50 on 04/01 could briefly support cyclicals, but the equity headwinds from 16 bearish convergence inputs overwhelm any single data point. A miss below 50 accelerates the waterfall.

Tracker Assessment: STRONGLY BEARISH. Tier 1 conviction. No gates blocking. Phase 3 active.

DISCLAIMER

This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are based on technical and macro analysis of market data and are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. Before making any investment decision, consult with a qualified financial advisor. The author assumes no responsibility for investment decisions made based on this analysis.

Analysis generated: 03/26/2026
Framework version: Maverick 5.8 (Dollar Governs Commodities + Range Regime)
Data: 03/26 darkpool CSV (1,974 tickers), 03/26 options CSV (34,192 contracts), 03/26 recon WL1, 0327 EM projections