DIRECTORY
All Reports
Complete listing of published research, sector analysis, and special reports.
The 1942 Playbook — Financial Repression & the Repricing of Everything
Why They Can't Afford To Start
All About Gamma — The Curvature That Runs the Tape (Interactive Masterclass)
The 2026 Bitcoin Bear Market
Fourth Turning Accumulation Playbook
Petrodollar Wars
SKEW Masterclass
Quad Witching OpEx Report
Stagflation Alpha Portfolio v3
Technology
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Communication Services
Real Estate
Utilities
09/11 - Every Hedge On The Tape Is Dated October
An in-line CPI bought a relief squeeze into a fifty-in-a-thousand breadth extreme and the week still closed -0.82% at 7,655.50. The finding is structural: the quad-witch put book has netted from -102 to +8, the week AFTER it is…
09/09 - The Reversion Held, The Internals Didn't
The S&P closed down 0.48% at 7,636, above the 7,623 line that decides September - the Iran-gap reversion held and the base-path trough is forming. But under the pinned index the tape was heavy: small-caps and the Dow broke their…
09/08 - The Iran Gap That Got Bought In A Negative-Gamma Field
The first session after Labor Day opened on an Iran oil gap, bought it back, then faded to close on the daily lower at 7,673.52 - not because sellers took over but because a deep negative-gamma field and an expiring short-delta…
09/04 · The Pin That Survived the Print
August payrolls printed +162k against +55k and the S&P closed down 0.38% at 7,718, sitting on the strike where the week's expiring options had their largest negative gamma node: a hot number the tape pinned rather than sold.
09/03 · The Hedge That Vanished Into the Print
A dovish Waller speech ran the S&P to its daily two-sigma while the index put line covering Friday's payrolls expiry went from about minus 80 to plus 10 in one session — the existing front hedge netted out, not a bet placed.
09/02 · The Rotation Under the Yield High
The ten-year made a year-to-date high and the tape closed green: the rate-sensitive sectors bought the yield fade while the August leaders were harvested into it, the September hedge book stopped closing and was rebuilt into…
08/31 · The Bid Under the Calm
Oil and the ten-year broke out and the index lost a third of a percent: the September hedge book was already paid for, the expiration puts are being closed, and the yield test sorted the tape by pricing power — technology…
08/27 · The Baton and the Wall
Thursday was the day the chase got measured: dealers were forced to buy roughly three billion deltas — the largest positive dealer-delta day of the year, matching early August's record — while NVDA's reaction session settled the…
08/26 · The Beat Against the Book
Wednesday was a machine holding its breath. The S&P sat inside a forty-five-point corridor between its two zero-day gamma anchors for the entire session, absorbed a hotter-than-expected July PCE print in four index points, and…
08/25 · The Pin Before the Print
Tuesday was Monday run backwards: an Iran de-escalation crushed oil and pulled yields down, and the AI-capex chips sold into the NVDA print snapped straight back (NVDA +2.2%, AMD +4.9%). But the bounce stopped dead under its…
08/24 · Rotation, Not Regime
Monday looked like a risk-off session and was really a rotation: the market took risk off the companies that pay the artificial-intelligence capital bill (memory, accelerators, neoclouds, down 2 to 6.5%) and put it into the…
08/21 · The Historic Week, Closed Out
The end-of-week edition on the Friday monthly-expiration close: five events in five sessions — the Treasury's faded long-bond intervention and the bond market's protest through real yields, Moderna's cancer-vaccine gap, a record…
08/20 · The Intervention Gets Tested
The bond market faded the Treasury’s buyback in one session — yields re-rose, the dollar stayed on its zone floor — and the index lost its gamma flip, its weekly expected-move floor and its financial core together, closing inside…
08/19 · The Debasement Rip
The Treasury doubled its own long-bond buybacks and every hard asset repriced at once — gold through its monthly band, miners and Bitcoin up 6–13%, banks paying the bill — while the index closed dead-center of its pin two…
08/18 · Stop Shorting the Firehose
Tuesday’s growth rout looked like the top confirming. It wasn’t — it was a profit-take plus a mechanical Korea deleveraging shock, and overnight the whole thing reversed: SK Hynix answered its own crash with a $28.6B buyback and…
08/17 · The Storm Started Underneath
The S&P slipped just 0.5% but the internals came apart underneath it — hyperscalers and the whole software leg rolled, only metals and miners bid, volatility woke up, and greed cracked off Friday's extreme.
08/14 · The Calm Before The Storm
Record-high drift on the year's lowest volatility, and the froth reached a tell: sentiment crossed 80.7 into extreme greed (first since April), Broadcom broke −5.9% dragging the software leg down, and five independent desks…
08/13 · Record High, Harvested
Producer prices cooled and the tape printed fresh record highs led by memory (SanDisk +13.7%, Micron +4.2%) — but the flow underneath is a harvest, not a chase: the index bid is pure structure, 82% of every sold call is a long…
08/12 · Hot Print, Bought Anyway
July core inflation ran hot — +0.32% on the month, the fastest since February — and the tape melted up anyway: the chips squeezed, AI-infrastructure went parabolic, and mega-cap software was sold.
08/11 · The Rotation Went Legible
The index sat pinned at 7,728 under its week-old ceiling while its leadership changed underneath — money out of software and the debt-issuing platforms, into high-beta, the crypto proxies, Korea and the hard assets.
+ 83 older reports — view the full daily archive →
Pippa Malmgren — “The Hug and the Hedge” — The Superpower Rapprochement Thesis vs. a Tape That Just Paid for Mid-July Protection (Global Macro Ep. 103, 15 Topics Cross-Referenced)
Benjamin Cowen — “Bitcoin: Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles” — Quantile-Model Cross-Reference
Cem Karsan — “Summer of George: VIX Compression Causes Stock Explosion, Starts June OpEx” (Trading Trends Deep Dive)
Mike Silva — “Everything Is Lining Up” + Savino ZB Treasury Bond Projection Deep Dive (Weekend Edition)
Mav — “Post-Bubble Portfolio Thesis” Through Tantrum-Resolution + Mode C + Year-End Recovery Reframe
Cem Karsan — "The Market Is Being Managed"
Mike Silva — "This Sector Shift Always Precedes Caution"
Mike Silva — “This Rally Is Running on Fumes”
Cem Karsan — “The Orchestrated Market Thesis”
Mav — “The Tacos Don’t Work Anymore”
Mike Silva — “The Capitulation That Hasn’t Come”
Mav — “They’re Cooking Something”
Mike Silva — “The Pain Trade Is Higher”
Mav Commentary 03/23
Mike Silva Commentary 03/23