Daily Report — 06/15/26 · "The Relief Gap They Sold Into"
Monday gapped up hard on the signed Iran deal and pinned near the highs — the kind of green screen that feels like a breakout. Underneath it, the option tape did the opposite of chase: institutions sold the rip across memory chips, equipment, software, financials and the crypto-treasury names while buying only a narrow set of leaders. The day's loudest single name was bought in shares and hedged to the teeth in options on the same ticker. This is the read on a relief rally that the people who built it were already distributing — and the map into a three-event week stacked behind one holiday.
Forward read (week of 6/15). Ride-but-don't-trust, and lighten leaders into strength rather than chase. The base case is a dealer-pinned grind into Thursday's quad-witching expiration — market-makers are heavily long the near-term, which forces them to sell rallies and buy dips and holds price near the755SPY wall and the7560index rail. The bigger tell sits in July: the downside-insurance book keeps building to fresh lows and dealers are heavily short that tenor, so the fragility lights up after the quad hedges roll off. Catalysts stack into three sessions — SpaceX options go live Tuesday, the new Fed chair's first decision and projections land Wednesday, quad-witching settles Thursday, and Friday is closed for Juneteenth. The timing model that has led this cycle called a rise into Monday (hit, and then some on the gap) and a wobble mid-week; the dip into the decision is the tactical add only if the7326monthly floor holds on a close. The structural posture is unchanged: this is a de-gross-and-hedge tape, not a short — the central bank backstop means you don't hold index shorts past the intraday.
The Relief Gap, and the Tape Beneath It
The market got exactly the catalyst the bulls wanted, gapped up to the ceiling on it — and the smart-money option tape spent the day selling into the move, not chasing it. The signed weekend deal pulled the geopolitical risk off the table, oil fell, the volatility market got crushed, and the index gapped through to a close near its session high. On the surface that is a clean breakout. One layer down it is a distribution-in-an-uptrend signature: the index printed a higher high while the leaders that supposedly drove it were net sold.
The proof is not one print, it is the breadth of it. Strip the spread-compression artifacts — the at-the-bid darkpool tags that mean nothing on a fast up-tape — and reconcile every name against where the options actually traded, and the selling shows up across memory chips, semiconductor equipment, the biggest software names, the entire financial complex, and the crypto-treasury cohort. The genuine buying was real but narrow: a handful of mega-caps, the power-and-datacenter group, and the IPO-adjacent complex. The index rose because passive index-fund flow and a forced-buy backdrop absorbed the supply, not because the leadership led.
TAPE · THE DAY — SPY $754.83 (+1.76%) closed near the $756.68 high; QQQ +3.14% led, NDX above its quarterly 2-sigma ceiling; IWM +0.82% held new-high posture; VIX crushed to ~16. Tech the only large positive net darkpool sector (~+$5B); Financials the largest negative (~-$12B, broker-dealer/card names 90%+ bid). Genuine accumulation: NVDA +$3.36B/98% ask, AAPL +$3.60B/100% ask, GOOGL +$2.67B/98% ask, TSLA +$1.90B/100% ask. Net-sold into green: MSFT, AMD, KLAC, AMAT, WDC, SNDK, MSTR, COIN, JPM.
The MU Paradox: Bought the Shares, Sold the Rip
If you want the whole day in one ticker, it is the memory leader: institutions bought the stock hand-over-fist and hedged the blow-off to the teeth in options on the very same name. The shares were accumulated as cleanly as anything on the tape — a near-six-billion-dollar darkpool print, virtually all at the ask, into a double-digit-percent up day. And on top of that long, the option desk wrote a fortune in upside calls and bought a fortune in downside puts, including far-out crash strikes hit by aggressive sweeps. You do not write that much protection against a position you intend to chase higher.
That is not a contradiction; it is the playbook for a vertical move. You own the trend, you monetize the froth by selling the calls the chasers are paying up for, and you cap the downside with puts financed by those calls. The read on the stock is constructive but the conviction is capped: this is a name to hold, not to add into the spike, and the option fortress underneath it is the tell that the people who own it are bracing for a digestion. The same shares-bought-options-hedged signature showed up in the equipment names too — bought in the darkpool, hedged in the puts.
TAPE · MU — MU $1087.99 (+10.84%), darkpool +$5.86B at 99% ask (cleanest share accumulation of the day) AND options net -$110.8M ($413M calls SOLD + $150M puts BOUGHT); aggressive Dec 550 put sweeps + Jul 1000 puts; blow-off (>30% above the 20-day average) caps conviction. LRCX same signature: +$1.60B shares / -$10.0M options hedged. Earnings 6/24 (after the quad) the next real catalyst.
Semiconductors: The Rally Was the Exit
The semis closed broadly and loudly green, but the side-of-trade decomposition says the rip was the liquidity event institutions used to sell — the dollar weight of the option flow was decisively negative even as the group ripped. Net across the complex, the options sold roughly three times more than they bought. Memory and equipment were the supply: the memory leader (above), the process-equipment names, and the metrology name all carried heavy put-buying or written calls into their green prints. The cleanest distribution on the whole tape was an equipment name that barely moved on price while three-quarters of its option premium went into buying puts.
The exceptions matter because they are narrow. The networking-and-ASIC leader was the one big semis name where the options genuinely bought — its scary-looking darkpool sell tag was a spread artifact, and the real flow leaned long. The compute leader was pinned and accumulated. And the cheap laggard chipmaker firmed enough to flip its recent fade. But the headline takeaway is a rotation happening inside the rally: money left memory and equipment and went, in part, into the Korean memory proxy through a pair of enormous fresh call blocks — offshoring the very trade it was selling at home.
The SMH put question
The semiconductor ETF drew a wall of put volume that looked, at a glance, like fresh panic hedging. Decomposed, it is mostly a roll, not new fear: the desk sold one set of July puts and bought a lower and a nearer-the-money set, financing the move roughly flat, with upside calls written on top. There is genuine fresh near-money protection in it, but it is paid for by giving up the strikes above and below — a restructured hedge, not a capitulation. The raw put-volume spike overstates the bearishness; the bottom-up read is that the rip is being distributed into and hedged, not chased.
TAPE · SEMIS (bottom-up) — complex options net ~-$118M into SMH +4.38%. Distribution: MU -$110.8M, KLAC $256.42 (+0.74%) -$40.1M (72% puts bought), LRCX -$10.0M, AMAT $585.78 (+3.27%) -$8.3M, AMD $547.26 (+6.98%) -$11.7M ($83.8M calls sold), TSM -$9.2M. Genuine bull: AVGO $393.94 (+3.11%) +$25.7M (darkpool -$4.76B was a spread artifact), NVDA +$24.3M, INTC $127.86 (+2.64%) +$13.4M, SOXX +$14.8M. MRVL $308.88 (+10.43%) "looks bullish, isn't" — a $169M call tape that nets +$2.3M after a third was written. EWY Korea: fresh Dec 230/250 call blocks ~$141M. SMH put-roll: sold Jul 545/550/555, bought Jul 525/530 + near-money 600, net options only -$7M.
Mega-Caps: Where the Buying Was Real, and Where It Wasn't
Four mega-caps were genuinely bought; one was just as genuinely sold; and two more looked sold but weren't. The clean longs were the search-and-cloud leader, the compute-chip leader, the phone-maker, and the electric-vehicle name — each printed near-total at-the-ask darkpool buying that lined up with the options. The search name was the single tightest large-cap on the tape, with the options buying calls and barely touching puts, which flips its recent demotion-watch back to constructive. The compute leader was pinned at its strike and accumulated underneath.
The genuine sell was the software-and-cloud giant: it rose with the tape but the darkpool sold it and the options confirmed — puts bought, calls written. That is real distribution into strength, not an artifact, and it keeps the name on the fade. The two head-fakes were the e-commerce and social names: both showed heavy at-the-bid darkpool that, on a fast up-tape, is just spread mechanics — their options actually leaned long, so the scary sell tag was noise. The lesson of the day is exactly this divergence: the label is not the trade, the side-of-trade is.
TAPE · MEGA-CAPS — clean buys: GOOGL $369.35 (+2.69%) +$2.67B/98% ask + options +$36.0M (50% calls bought, 15% puts); NVDA $212.45 (+3.54%) +$3.36B/98% ask, pinned 212-213 under the 215 wall; AAPL $296.42 (+1.82%) +$3.60B/100% ask; TSLA $411.15 (+1.16%) +$1.90B/100% ask, ascending floor 407-411. Real distribution: MSFT $399.76 (+2.31%) -$2.14B/80% bid + options -$36.6M. Head-fakes (bid tag = artifact, options long): AMZN $246.02 (+3.13%) options +$11.6M; META $593.48 (+4.77%) options +$17.1M.
The Dealer Pin: Why Thursday's Quad Caps This
The reason a distributed tape can still grind higher this week is mechanical: dealers are heavily long the near-term, and that forces them to lean against every move — sell the rallies, buy the dips — which pins price under the ceiling into Thursday's expiration. The same-session delta exposure is positive and at the top of its range, the gamma profile is positive at and just under spot, and the heaviest dealer long sits right on the quad date. Translate the jargon: the index is in a vise between a call wall just overhead and dealer buying just below, and the most likely path is a grind-and-pin, not a melt-up or a flush — until the hedges expire.
The fragility is one expiration further out, and it kept getting worse on the up day. The mid-July book is the mirror image — dealers heavily short that tenor, and the cumulative downside-insurance line there fell to a fresh low even as the market rallied. That is the part that matters for the rate-of-change: the insurance is not being unwound into strength, it is being added to. The near-term machinery is bullish and the back-month positioning is defensive, and the gap between them is, again, the whole story. One nuance on the Thursday expiration itself: some of its downside hedges are being lifted into the event, which thins the floor under price once the pin releases.
TAPE · DEALER MAP — same-session delta exposure positive ~+$2.5B (top of range, no flip); dealers long ~+$3.5B today and ~+$6.5B into the Thursday quad (largest long on the board) = pin; positive gamma, SPY flip 754-755, wall 755/757, price closed $754.83 on the flip. Mid-July: dealers short ~-$4.5B, cumulative insurance line ~-$650M fresh low (still building, not unwound). Downside line: lose SPY 744 → index 7400 turns fast.
Financials, Storage, and Crypto-Treasury: The Other Side of the Tape
Three cohorts carried the clearest selling, and two of the three were red-or-flat on price, so there is no fast-tape excuse for the labels. Financials were the largest negative sector on the board by a wide margin — the big banks, a broker-dealer, and a card network all printed heavy at-the-bid darkpool while the group went nowhere. That resolves a live disagreement: the bullish technical-breakout call on the regional banks and the financial sector is contradicted by the actual bottom-up flow, which says distribution, not breakout. When the chart and the tape disagree, the tape gets the benefit of the doubt.
Storage split in a way worth watching. The hard-drive and one memory-card name exploded double digits but were sold into the rip — darkpool at the bid, options writing calls into the squeeze. One enterprise-storage name was the clean exception, bought outright. And the crypto-treasury proxies bounced with the tape but were distributed underneath — the leveraged-bitcoin proxy and the exchange both drew heavy put-buying into their green prints, which is the opposite of a bottom being bought.
TAPE · THE SELLS — Financials net darkpool ~-$12B: JPM $319.40 (-0.41%) -$778M/91% bid, plus broker-dealer and card names 90%+ bid. Storage split: WDC $653.53 (+16.10%) -$589M/92% bid + options calls sold; SNDK $2107.86 (+6.45%) -$1.05B/75% bid; clean exception STX $1018.80 (+9.43%) +$1.16B/100% ask. Crypto-treasury distributed: MSTR $131.14 (+5.78%) -$229M + options -$39.6M (77% puts bought); COIN $169.62 (+6.16%) -$177M/96% bid.
Power and AI-Infra: The One Cohort Being Bought
If the day had a genuine leadership group with no hedge-and-cap asterisk, it was the electricity behind the AI buildout. The cooling, grid, and independent-power names all rose on real demand — price up, darkpool buying, no put fortress underneath. This is the cleanest expression of the structural bid in the whole market right now: when investors pay up for the power plants and grid hardware feeding the datacenters rather than the chips themselves, that is conviction in the buildout, not a trade on a multiple.
The AI-infrastructure names were more mixed — one neocloud name carried a large fresh deep-in-the-money call block that behaves like owning the stock, but it was hedged with puts on top, the same own-and-protect pattern as the chips. The space complex is worth a separate note: the publicly traded launch and satellite names recovered on demand-heavy tape and held the bases they were crushed to during the listing drain, which makes them a hold rather than an add until they prove a base.
TAPE · POWER / AI-INFRA — clean accumulation: VRT $311.93 (+2.99%), GEV $979.07 (+4.08%), CEG $262.35 (+3.39%), VST $153.52 (+3.72%) — price-up, demand-side. NBIS $260.07 (+11.93%) deep-ITM 200 call block (synthetic long) but options net -$25.5M (hedged); IREN $60.85 (+1.81%) +$227M/75% ask. Space bases held: RKLB $109.25 (+6.70%), ASTS $87.57 (+6.26%), SATS $117.87 (+3.32%).
SpaceX: The Drain Has a Name
You asked what happens now that options unlock and whether more dilution is coming — the answers are that the implied-volatility guess is the trade, and the dilution is already here in the form of stock, not cash. The newly public rocket company squeezed to a fresh high overnight before paring, trading near a two-and-a-half-trillion valuation that vaults it into the top five US companies just days after listing — an outsized continuation of a debut that opened above its offer price and closed up sharply. With no trading history, the market-makers writing the first options today have to guess how much it moves per day, and the safe bet is they overprice that guess. So the first-day setup is a volatility trade, not a direction trade: if the stock settles into a range before the index-rebalance demand in early July, the inflated premium is a sell; if it keeps moving fifteen-to-twenty-plus percent a day, the premium is too cheap and it is a buy.
On the dilution question, the answer arrived this morning and it is the important one: the company announced a sixty-billion-dollar all-stock acquisition of the parent of the AI-coding tool you flagged — no cash. That matters in two ways. First, it means the eighty-six billion of cash raised in the offering is still dry powder, so this is not the cash being spent — it is the freshly minted, richly valued equity being used as acquisition currency, with the cash still available for more. Expect continued paper-funded empire-building, not a one-off. Second, it confirms the mechanism this whole report keeps circling: the listing is a liquidity sink. The gain in the new name is the drain on the incumbents — retail and funds sell their existing tech to chase it, and the index has to make room for a giant new component in early July by selling the names already in it. That forced-rotation calendar is the same engine distributing the chips and software above. Net read: buyers likely dominate the new name into the early-July rebalance, then it becomes a trap as that demand exhausts and the first insider unlocks approach in August.
TAPE · SPCX — SpaceX ~$194 (listed at 135, closed first day 161, +19%; squeezed to ~215 overnight before paring); ~2.5-trillion cap, top-5 US company, 86-billion raised. Today: announced 60-billion ALL-STOCK acquisition of Anysphere (Cursor) — equity as M&A currency, IPO cash untouched. Mechanism: index-rebalance demand builds into early July (force-buy), then supply cliff + August lockups. Options go live today — implied-vol overpricing is the first-day edge, not direction.
Sentiment and the Stretch: Greed Into the Binary
The crowd has gone from fear to greed in three sessions, and it has done so right as the index pushed past the top of its statistical quarterly range — the two readings together are a caution flag, not a green light. The composite sentiment gauge has round-tripped from a fear reading near its capitulation zone last Wednesday to a deep-greed reading now, one of the sharpest five-day swings on record. That kind of velocity into a known binary event — a central-bank decision and a quad expiration in the same week — is the textbook complacency setup: the easy money in the relief trade has been made, and the marginal buyer is now the one chasing.
The stretch is the other half. The Nasdaq complex closed above the upper edge of its quarterly two-sigma band — the widest statistical envelope the framework tracks — and every major index closed above its one-sigma quarterly ceiling. That is the most band-extended quarterly reading of the cycle, well past the threshold that normally triggers a regime re-check. Stretched-and-greedy does not mean down-tomorrow, but it does mean the reward for chasing here is poor and the air above is thin.
TAPE · SENTIMENT + STRETCH — sentiment composite 68.8 GREED (+6.8 one-day, +19.7 five-day) from 39.0 FEAR last Wednesday — near the top, not the capitulation floor at 15. Quarterly ceilings: QQQ and NDX ABOVE the quarterly 2-sigma upper; all five indices above the quarterly 1-sigma upper. Index trend-strength risk-on dominant (semis, tech, small-caps); defensives (staples, utilities, real estate, bonds) reading reversed; the headline index trend itself reads dead/compressed.
Oil, the Dollar, and Metals
Oil is sliding for the right reason for stocks, the dollar is quietly basing, and metals are a non-signal — the cross-asset picture is risk-on but with a dollar caveat. Crude kept falling toward the high-70s, and the driver is supply, not weakness: the reopening of the shipping chokepoint is putting barrels back on the market faster than demand is fading. That is the friendly kind of oil decline — disinflationary, which keeps the macro tape clean into the Fed — rather than the recessionary kind where oil and stocks fall together. They didn't; stocks ripped while oil fell.
The dollar is the watch item. It is carving higher lows and holding above the mid-99s — not a breakout, but a base, and a firmer dollar is a slow headwind for the hardest-asset trades. Gold and silver rose on the day but their trends read dead in the framework's range work, meaning there is no edge in the move, and the options on gold were actually buying downside into the strength. Metals are a hold-and-wait, not a signal — the cleaner re-entry is later in the year if the dollar rolls over, not here.
TAPE · CROSS-ASSET — WTI ~$77.75 and falling (supply-driven, USO -3.36%); oil down WITH equities up = risk-on, not recession. Dollar index higher lows, holding above ~99.4 (basing under 100, range still pointing down). GLD $396.55 (+2.59%) and SLV $63.47 (+3.56%) up on price but trends DEAD (no edge); GLD options -$50.6M with a $35.7M downside put bought into the rally. 30-year yield above 5% — the fiscal-stress tell under the calm.
The Week Ahead: Warsh, the Quad, and the Timing Window
Four events behind one holiday, and the order of operations is what matters. SpaceX options go live Tuesday with import-price inflation data; the new Fed chair delivers his first decision, projections, and press conference Wednesday with a pause near-certain so the dots and the tone are the only variables; quad-witching expiration settles Thursday; Friday is closed for Juneteenth. The single biggest risk to the pin is a hawkish set of projections — with inflation data still firm and the crowd already maximally greedy, a hawkish surprise has the most fuel to reverse the tape, while a dovish hold just confirms a melt-up the market already owns.
The timing model that has led this cycle called a rise into Monday and a low mid-week before turning up into the weekend after next. Monday's up-leg hit and overshot on the gap, which means the mid-week dip it wanted is now compromised — if a pullback comes it is a shallow dip from a higher base, not the clean trough the model drew. The bond version of the same model has yields rising into that mid-week window, which lines up with a wobble around the decision. Treat the timing as direction and shape, never as a price target — the magnitude lives in the expected-move bands, and those say the ceiling cluster is right overhead.
TAPE · THE WEEK — Tue 6/16 SpaceX options live + import prices; Wed 6/17 Fed decision/dots/first Warsh presser (pause ~95%+, dots the risk); Thu 6/18 quad-witch settles; Fri 6/19 Juneteenth closed. Ceiling cluster: weekly rail 7562 / daily 7602 / zone high 7668. Floors: SPY 744 → index 7400 fast → monthly 7326. Timing model: up-leg hit Monday, mid-week low compromised by the gap, up-spike projected ~6/20-21; bond yields up into the same window.
Unusual Activity
Five institutional structures stood out beyond the headline flow — each a distinct way large money positioned underneath a green tape.
1. AMD — own the stock via deep calls, hedge it into 2028
The single largest single-name option print was a deep-in-the-money call block on the chipmaker that functions as synthetic stock ownership, paired with a fresh long-dated put bought as a tail hedge. This is a sophisticated long expressed as delta-one exposure with crash insurance bolted on — not a directional bet, a managed position, and the same own-and-protect pattern as the memory leader.
TAPE · AMD — Jun-18 240 call ~$108M, ~56% in-the-money (stock-replacement, delta-one) + Jan-2028 600 put bought ~$26M (fresh, OI near zero) = long-with-tail-hedge against AMD $547.26 (+6.98%).
2. SPX — a fresh September put wall laddered just below spot
The real index hedge of the day was not a single name — it was a multi-hundred-million-dollar ladder of September index puts struck right below the cash index, much of it brand-new open interest. This is portfolio insurance being laid in at-the-money for the quarter, the institutional counterweight to all the long delta in the dealer book.
TAPE · SPX HEDGE — Sep 7550 put ~$140M (fresh, OI zero) + Sep 7600/7700 puts ~$97M + Aug 8000 put ~$119M; plus a multi-year 2027 deep-tail put complex. At-the-money quarterly insurance laddered below a ~7554 cash index.
3. NBIS — a fresh deep-ITM call block into the rip
A neocloud name drew a large, fresh deep-in-the-money call block — new money establishing synthetic-long exposure into a near-twelve-percent up day — though the name's overall option tape was net-hedged, so even this aggressive long carries protection on top.
TAPE · NBIS — Jun-26 200 call ~$65M block, OI zero (fresh, ~23% in-the-money) into NBIS $260.07 (+11.93%); overall name options net -$25.5M (hedged).
4. EWY — offshoring the memory trade to Korea
Two enormous fresh call blocks landed on the Korea ETF the same day domestic memory was being sold — a cross-asset rotation that buys the Korean memory complex (the big foreign DRAM makers) through index calls while distributing the US memory names. It is the clearest single tell that the semis selling was rotation, not liquidation.
TAPE · EWY — Dec 230 call ~$89M (fresh, OI zero) + Dec 250 call ~$52M = ~$141M of fresh Korea upside, same session US memory (MU/SNDK/WDC) was net-sold.
5. MU — crash sweeps financing the cap
The memory leader's downside was bought in aggressive sweeps at far-out strikes, financed by the fortune in calls written against the long — the single clearest sell-the-squeeze structure on the tape, and the engine of the name's deeply negative net option flow.
TAPE · MU SWEEPS — Dec 550 put sweeps ~$30M (to ask) + Jul 1000 put ~$10M against MU $1087.99 (+10.84%); ~$413M of calls written funds the protection.
Scorecard: Grading Friday's Report and Its Trades
Directional grade: B+. Friday's read nailed the two things that mattered — that the de-escalation was the surprise vector (the deal signed over the weekend) and that the leaders were being distributed to fund the rotation (now playing out in full). The miss was magnitude: the "engineered calm / small pop" near-term framing was overrun by a two-percent gap. The timing call (a rise into Monday) hit and overshot; the mid-week-low call is now compromised by the size of the gap.
- NVDA pin-long — WIN (A). Clean accumulation continued, pinned higher into 212-213.
- Power VRT/GEV/CEG long — WIN (A). All up 3-4%, the demand bid confirmed and still the cleanest cohort.
- July downside hedge — WIN/carry (A-). The mid-July insurance book deepened to fresh lows — the thesis strengthened.
- Index dip-buy into 6/16-17 — B+. The Sunday gap pre-empted the dip and hit the relief targets outright; right direction, no clean entry.
- MSTR starter-watch — B. Price popped but the flow turned to distribution — the "add on a second confirming session" condition never triggered, correctly keeping it a starter.
- INTC fade-the-trap — MISS (C), owned. The chipmaker firmed and its flow flipped constructive on the session; the fade was wrong for now.
Top Trades grade: B+. The longs and the hedge worked cleanly; the one outright fade (INTC) missed and is flagged as a stabilization-watch reversal to respect.
The Bottom Line
Monday was a relief gap the people who built it sold into. The index ripped to its ceiling on the signed deal, but the side-of-trade truth underneath was distribution across memory chips, equipment, the biggest software and financial names, and the crypto-treasury cohort — with genuine buying confined to a narrow set of mega-caps, the power complex, and the IPO-adjacent names. The clearest signature of the day was a leader bought in shares and hedged to the teeth in options on the same ticker: own the trend, monetize the froth, cap the downside.
The near-term machinery still points up — dealers are pinned long into Thursday's quad, the central-bank backstop keeps shorts to intraday only, and the timing model leans higher into next week. But the case for chasing here is thin: sentiment has ripped to greed, the Nasdaq closed above the top of its quarterly range, and the July insurance book keeps building to new lows even as the tape rallies. The posture is unchanged from Friday and better-supported on both sides: ride it, don't trust it, lighten leaders into the ceiling, carry the July hedge, and let the new rocket listing's implied volatility — not its direction — be the trade on Tuesday. The drain has a name now, and it is pulling liquidity out of the very names the tape spent Monday selling.
Top Trades to Follow
SOURCES
Data date 2026-06-15 close. All single-name prices are split-adjusted daily closes; the nightly pipeline's price field failed this run and anchors were repaired from an authoritative market-data feed (documented in the working file).
Expected Moves & sentiment: daily expected moves 0616.png · daily expected moves - zones 0616.png · Daily expected moves - range & trend 0616.png · weekly expected moves - 0615 to 0618.png · monthly expected moves June 2026.png · quarterly expected moves April to June 2026.png · FOM sentiment index 0615.pdf (68.8 GREED, +6.8 1D, +19.7 5D).
Tradytics dashboards (every panel read as images): options dashboard 0615.pdf (21 panels: sentiment/target, market net flow, 0DTE flow + GEX SPY/SPX/QQQ, Market DEX, flow map by expiry, flow timeline, dealers diary, top flow, call/put chains, vol-change, cheapies/LEAPs/most-OTM/large-OTM-OI, sector radar/flows/premiums, calls/puts dashboards) · darkpool dashboard 0615.pdf (12 panels: header cards, live + block trades, largest-trades bubble, sector amount + net, ticker dashboards).
Aggregate CSVs (full decomposition): Live Options Flow - 0615.csv (40,316 rows, side-adjusted) · Darkpool Market Summary 0615.csv (3,234 rows, price-adjusted).
Timing (direction/shape only, never a price target): savino June 2026 projection - 0612 update.png · savino June 2026 projection - inverse - 0612 update.png (favored) · Savino - ZB_F US Treasury Bond Forecast 0612 update.png.
Commentary (12 sources 0612-0615, pre-digested): ET Tradytics, Geeks of Finance, Cheddar Flow, Mike Jones, Casual Finance, FX Evolution, Financial Freedom 101, James, Trading Fraternity, Popeye, Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer, Defiant Gatekeeper · MAV "The SpaceX IPO's Impact On The Market Is Just Beginning."
Recon pipeline: recon_data/2026-06-15/wl1/analysis_results/ — maverick_summary_2026-06-15_wl1.md + 12 sector chunks + ticker_reports/ (520 files; ~70-name verification set read for signal + ladder + positional + gamma + dealer). Working file: comprehensive_analysis_0615.md (passed inventory, six citation, and price-trace gates).
External (SpaceX, web-sourced — not in the recon universe): SpaceX/SPCX quote + listing data; SpaceX-Anysphere (Cursor) $60B all-stock merger (8-K filed 6/16) per CNBC / TechCrunch / Investing.com.