Nine days since v1 (03/09). The war has escalated. Hormuz is hardening. Oil topped $100 today. The FOMC is frozen. Five mega-cap beats sold off. SPY is -1.4% today, GDX is -6.23% today. And XOP is +1.93% today. Energy is the only sector green on a blood-red tape.
The thesis sharpened in three ways. First: energy and oil services are now DOMINANT, not just favored. The only green on a -1.4% SPY day tells you where capital is hiding. Second: precious metals got crushed today (-6% GDX, -4% SLV) because DXY is rising toward 100 — the Safe Haven Dollar pattern (Mav 5.8 Rule 13). Metals stay in the portfolio but with a DXY HEADWIND flag. Third: ag inflation is no longer theoretical — CF Industries +59% YTD, urea +59%, soybean oil +36%. Hormuz is disrupting fertilizer trade directly. This pillar gets its own section now.
v1 was built for the regime we were heading toward. v2 is built for the regime we're IN.
⭐⭐⭐ → #1 OVERALL. $58.8M BULL HIGH = LARGEST options signal in the entire universe.
↑ UPGRADED
DVN
⭐⭐ → ⭐⭐⭐. DP surged +179%, $45.36M net accumulation.
↓ DOWNGRADED
LMT
⭐⭐⭐ → ⭐⭐. Options flipped -$1.4M BEAR (HIGH). DP still strong but signal conflicted.
↓ DOWNGRADED
MCD
⭐⭐⭐ → ⭐. 59% unknown options (LOW conf). Can't verify the signal anymore.
↓ DOWNGRADED
CCJ
⭐⭐ → REMOVED. Options -$247K BEAR (HIGH). Nuclear not participating in war regime.
📊 YTD PERFORMANCE — THE WAR REGIME SCOREBOARD
CATEGORY
PROXY
~YTD
vs SPX
🌾 Fertilizer
CF
+59% 🔥🔥
+61% ahead
⚔️ Defense
LMT
+38%
+40% ahead
🛢️ Oil Services
HAL
~+35%
+37% ahead
🛢️ Energy E&P
OXY
~+30%
+32% ahead
🥇 Copper
SCCO
+28%
+30% ahead
⛏️ Gold Miners
GDX
~+20%
+22% ahead
🛡️ Defensives
XLP
+16%
+18% ahead
📉 S&P 500
SPX
-2%
— baseline —
📉 Growth
QQQ
-7%
-5% behind
📉 Semis
SMH
-16%
-14% behind
CF +59%. LMT +38%. OXY +30%. SPX -2%. SMH -16%. The stagflation alpha portfolio's constituents are beating the broad market by 20-60 points. This isn't backtesting — this is happening in real time.
🏆 THE 20 NAMES — GROUPED BY WAR-REGIME PILLAR
PILLAR 1: ENERGY PRODUCERS (Hormuz closure + oil $100 + war premium)
OXY — Occidental Petroleum⭐⭐⭐ TIER 1
~+30% YTD
DP 03/18
$18.73M, Net +$12.24M (ACCUMULATION)
Options Side-Adj
+$1.3M BULL (HIGH conf 9% unk)
Options Detail
64 trades, $2.1M calls BOUGHT at ask
Signal
DOUBLE CONVERGENCE: DP + Options BULLISH
Consistent Tier 1 from v1. DP accumulation + bullish options with HIGH confidence = clean convergence. Buffett's largest energy holding. Direct revenue beneficiary of $100 oil. Permian Basin + Mideast export capacity.
DVN — Devon Energy⭐⭐⭐ TIER 1↑ UPGRADED
~+25% YTD
DP 03/18
$140.48M, +179% surge, Net +$45.36M
Options Side-Adj
+$254K BULL (MOD conf 11% unk)
Blocks
8 block trades (institutional)
Upgraded from Tier 2. Darkpool surged +179% day-over-day to $140.48M with $45.36M net accumulation and 8 block trades. That's institutional capital pouring in. Variable dividend model = direct pass-through of higher oil prices. Lowest breakeven costs in the Permian.
CVX — Chevron⭐⭐ TIER 2NEW
~+25% YTD
DP 03/18
$729.76M, Net -$396.69M (FAST tape)
Options Side-Adj
+$156K BULL (MOD conf 15% unk)
Options Detail
101 trades, $21.7M calls bought + $21.3M calls sold
Blocks
18 block trades
Replaces XOM (which had 60% unknown side). CVX shows $729M in DP with 18 blocks on a fast tape — labels unreliable per Mav 5.5, but the sheer volume and block count signal institutional activity. Options are tightly contested ($21.7M calls bought vs $21.3M sold) = massive hedge fund battlefield. Net lean-bullish. Integrated supermajor with massive LNG exposure.
COP — ConocoPhillips⭐⭐ TIER 2
~+20% YTD
DP 03/18
$27.89M, Net -$9.17M
Options Side-Adj
+$100K BULL but LOW conf (90% unk)
Options data is 90% unknown side — can't use for convergence per Mav 5.7.1. DP volume moderate. Kept on structural thesis: pure-play upstream E&P, lowest-cost large-cap producer, direct war/oil beneficiary. Lower conviction than OXY or DVN.
Oil services are the leveraged play on sustained high oil prices. When oil stays above $80 for quarters (not days), E&P companies increase drilling budgets, and service companies capture that spend. HAL shows clean bullish flow with HIGH confidence — $400K calls bought, zero puts bought. DP lean-bullish. This is the second-order war trade that most people miss.
SLB — Schlumberger⭐ TIER 3NEW
~+20% YTD
DP 03/18
$15.78M, Net -$3.70M
Options Side-Adj
+$687K BULL (HIGH conf 0% unk)
Detail
$694K puts SOLD at bid = bullish conviction
Largest oilfield services company globally. Options show $694K in puts sold at bid = aggressive bullish conviction (selling insurance). HIGH confidence with 0% unknown. DP is light and mixed today but the options signal is clean. International exposure (Middle East, Guyana, Brazil) benefits from global E&P capex cycle.
Downgraded from Tier 1. Options flipped bearish with $1.5M in calls sold at bid — institutional call writing / profit-taking after a 38% run. That's not a thesis change, it's CROWDING mechanics: the best performer attracts profit-takers. Structural thesis intact (budget, backlog, Iran). Keep but reduce near-term conviction. The 38% YTD return IS the evidence this pillar works.
NOC — Northrop Grumman⭐⭐ TIER 2NEW
~+15% YTD
DP 03/18
$40.72M, 100% at-ask, Net +$40.72M
Signal
CLEANEST defense DP signal today
Replaces RTX (which had 57% unknown options). NOC shows $40.72M darkpool at 100% at-ask = pure institutional accumulation with zero selling. B-21 Raider bomber program, nuclear ICBM modernization (Sentinel), and space systems all benefit from the $1.5T defense budget. Lower YTD than LMT = more room to run.
TDG — TransDigm⭐⭐ TIER 2NEW
~+10% YTD
Options Side-Adj
+$1.8M BULL (HIGH conf 0% unk)
Detail
$1.8M in puts SOLD at bid = bullish conviction
The defense sector's toll booth. TDG makes sole-source, proprietary aftermarket parts for military and commercial aircraft. Customers literally cannot go elsewhere. $1.8M in puts sold at bid with HIGH confidence = aggressive bullish conviction. This is NOT a government contractor — it's a monopoly pricing machine that benefits from every defense dollar regardless of which prime wins the contract.
PILLAR 4: PRECIOUS METALS + MINERS (debasement + central bank buying) ⚠️ DXY HEADWIND
⚠️ MAVERICK 5.8 DXY WARNING
DXY is rising toward 100 with oil simultaneously rising = Safe Haven Dollar pattern (Mav 5.8 Section 1.4.1). This is BEARISH for metals per hierarchy Rank 1. GDX -6.23% and SLV -4.13% today confirm this. However, options flow remains massively bullish (SLV $18.6M BULL, GLD $17.3M BULL, GDX $2.6M BULL) — institutional buyers are BUYING THE DIP. The structural thesis (central bank buying, fiscal dominance, currency debasement) is intact but the tactical setup is AGAINST metals until DXY rolls over. Position sizing should reflect this conflict: REDUCED SIZE, wider stops.
GDX — VanEck Gold Miners ETF⭐⭐ TIER 2⚠️ DXY
~+14% YTD (was +20%)
Price 03/18
$88.11 (-6.23% today)
Options Side-Adj
+$2.6M BULL (MOD conf 12% unk)
SLV Options
$18.6M BULL (MOD conf 29% unk), 588 trades
GLD Options
$17.3M BULL (MOD conf 27% unk), 423 trades
Down 6.23% TODAY — the DXY headwind is real and painful. But options flow across the entire precious metals complex is BUYING THE DIP: $18.6M bullish in SLV, $17.3M in GLD, $2.6M in GDX. That's ~$38M in side-adjusted bullish flow across the complex on a -6% day. Institutions don't buy $38M in calls on a sector they're abandoning. The structural thesis (central bank buying at record pace, fiscal dominance, currency debasement) hasn't changed — the TACTICAL setup has. Reduced position size until DXY reverses.
KGC — Kinross Gold⭐⭐ TIER 2NEW⚠️ DXY
~+25% YTD
DP 03/18
$50.53M, Net -$15.5M
Options Side-Adj
+$720K BULL (HIGH conf 0% unk)
Detail
$699K puts SOLD = bullish conviction
Cleanest bullish gold miner signal today. $699K in puts sold at bid with HIGH confidence and ZERO unknown side values = aggressive bullish conviction despite the -6% gold miner selloff. When someone sells $699K in puts on a day the sector is getting hammered, they believe the bottom is close. DP is mixed (fast tape, labels unreliable).
NEM — Newmont Mining⭐ TIER 3⚠️ DXY
~+20% YTD
DP 03/18
$50.62M, Net +$47.79M (ACCUMULATION)
Options Side-Adj
-$584K BEAR (MOD conf 20% unk)
Signal
DP BULL + Options BEAR = CONFLICTED
DP shows accumulation ($47.79M net) but options are selling ($584K bearish). Per Mav hierarchy: equity flow (Rank 5) > options (Rank 7) on conflict → lean bullish structurally, but the conflict + DXY headwind = lower conviction. Largest gold miner in the world. Keep for structural exposure but no adds.
AG — First Majestic Silver⭐ TIER 3⚠️ DXY
~+20% YTD
DP 03/18
$25.84M, Net +$4.62M, 13 block trades
Options Side-Adj
-$1.4M BEAR (MOD conf 20% unk)
Detail
$2.6M calls SOLD vs $1.1M calls bought
DP lean-bullish with 13 block trades, but options show $2.6M in call writing vs only $1.1M bought = institutions selling upside exposure. SLV itself still has $18.6M bullish options flow, so the silver thesis is alive — but AG specifically is seeing call writing. Silver miner = leveraged silver play. Keep for thesis exposure but no adds until AG options flip or DXY reverses.
Consistent Tier 1 from v1. DP at 100% at-ask = clean institutional accumulation. Options thin but directionally bullish with perfect HIGH confidence (0% unknown). Copper is the backbone of electrification. ISM expansion validates industrial copper demand. 52% operating margin = best-in-class profitability among miners.
FCX — Freeport-McMoRan⭐⭐ TIER 2
~+18% YTD
DP 03/18
$165.53M, Net -$149.01M
Options Side-Adj
+$443K BULL (HIGH conf 7% unk)
Detail
$1.3M puts SOLD (bullish) + $639K calls bought
DP is distributing heavily on a fast tape ($-149M net), but options tell a different story: $1.3M in puts sold (bullish conviction) and $639K calls bought = $443K net bullish with HIGH confidence. Per Mav hierarchy: equity flow (Rank 5) > options (Rank 7) → lean bearish SHORT TERM, but the options suggest institutional buyers view this dip as an opportunity. Copper supply constraints structural through 2030+.
PILLAR 6: AG INFLATION (Hormuz disrupting fertilizer + food inflation pipeline) NEW PILLAR
CF — CF Industries⭐⭐⭐ TIER 1NEW
+59% YTD 🔥🔥
DP 03/18
$102.57M, Net -$92.93M
Options Side-Adj
+$1.8M BULL (HIGH conf 5% unk)
Options Detail
$3.1M calls BOUGHT at ask, 68 trades
Signal
DP BEAR (fast tape) + Options BULL HIGH
The single most important addition to this portfolio. CF Industries is the largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America, insulated from the Hormuz disruption by domestic natural gas supply. One-third of global seaborne fertilizer passes through the strait. With that supply stranded, CF captures the margin expansion directly. $3.1M in calls bought at ask with HIGH confidence despite a -3.97% pullback today = institutions buying the dip. Urea +59% YTD. The ag inflation pipeline (soybean oil +36%, wheat +20%, diesel approaching 2022 highs) is the NEXT inflation wave that CPI hasn't captured yet. ISM Prices Paid at 70.5 is the leading indicator. Beta 0.69 — lower vol than most commodity plays. PE 14x with 33.9% EBIT margin.
PILLAR 7: DEFENSIVE PRICING POWER (inelastic demand + inflation pass-through)
PM — Philip Morris⭐⭐⭐ TIER 1↑ #1 OVERALL
~+15% YTD
Options Side-Adj
+$58.8M BULL (HIGH conf 2% unk) 🔥🔥🔥
Options Detail
$62.1M calls BOUGHT at ask, 80 trades
DP 03/18
$20.68M, Net +$3.66M (lean bullish)
Signal
DOUBLE CONVERGENCE: DP + Options MASSIVE BULLISH
🏆 THE SINGLE LARGEST BULLISH OPTIONS SIGNAL IN THE ENTIRE 1,900-TICKER UNIVERSE TODAY. $62.1M in calls bought aggressively at ask with 2% unknown = the cleanest institutional conviction signal Maverick has ever processed. This is not speculation — at 80 trades and $62.1M, this is a coordinated institutional campaign to get long PM. Tobacco demand is the most inelastic curve in capitalism. IQOS growth driver. Pricing power immune to economic cycle. The 1970s proved tobacco stocks were among the best performers through the entire stagflation decade. And today's flow says institutions agree — with $58.8M in conviction.
ABBV — AbbVie⭐⭐ TIER 2
~+5% YTD
DP 03/18
$371.13M, +45%, Net +$296.85M (ACCUMULATION)
Options Side-Adj
-$1.2M BEAR (HIGH conf 0% unk)
Signal
DP MASSIVE BULL + Options BEAR = CONFLICTED
Conflicted signal: $371M darkpool with $296.85M net accumulation (MASSIVE equity buying) vs -$1.2M options bearish. Per Mav hierarchy: equity flow (Rank 5) > options (Rank 7) → lean bullish. The darkpool number is enormous — someone is building a position in size while options traders hedge or take the other side. Healthcare demand is non-discretionary. Immunology + oncology pipeline. 53 years of dividend increases.
BMY — Bristol-Myers Squibb⭐ TIER 3
~+10% YTD
DP 03/18
$71.42M, Net -$21.16M
Options Side-Adj
+$886K BULL (MOD conf 24% unk)
DP distributing today but options lean bullish ($1.6M calls bought at ask). Healthcare is non-discretionary demand — people don't stop taking medications in a recession. Deep value relative to peer group. Keep for defensive diversification.
MCD — McDonald's⭐ TIER 3↓ DOWNGRADED
~+8% YTD
DP 03/18
$87.43M, 100% at-bid, Net -$87.43M
Options Side-Adj
-$256K BEAR but LOW conf (59% unk)
Downgraded from Tier 1. Two problems: (1) darkpool 100% at-bid = distribution; (2) options 59% unknown = can't verify signal per Mav 5.7.1. The thesis (pricing power, inelastic demand) hasn't changed but the FLOW no longer supports it. Keep for structural diversification at reduced size. If flow confirms again, upgrade back.
📋 COMPLETE RANKING — ALL 20 NAMES
#
TICKER
PILLAR
~YTD
DP 03/18
OPT SIDE
CONF
TIER
REGIME FIT
Δ
1
PM
Tobacco
+15%
+$3.66M
+$58.8M BULL 🔥
HIGH
⭐⭐⭐
Inelastic
↑
2
OXY
Energy
+30%
+$12.24M
+$1.3M BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐⭐
Oil+War
=
3
CF
Fertilizer
+59%
-$92.93M
+$1.8M BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐⭐
Hormuz+Ag
NEW
4
DVN
Energy
+25%
+$45.36M
+$254K BULL
MOD
⭐⭐⭐
Oil+Div
↑
5
SCCO
Copper
+28%
+$12.37M
+$4K BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐⭐
ISM+EV
=
6
NOC
Defense
+15%
+$40.72M
N/A
N/A
⭐⭐
Budget+War
NEW
7
TDG
Defense
+10%
N/A
+$1.8M BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐
Monopoly
NEW
8
LMT
Defense
+38%
N/A
-$1.4M BEAR
HIGH
⭐⭐
Budget+War
↓
9
CVX
Energy
+25%
CONTESTED
+$156K BULL
MOD
⭐⭐
Oil+LNG
NEW
10
HAL
OilSvc
+35%
+$5.97M
+$225K BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐
SustainOil
NEW
11
GDX
Gold Mnrs
+14%
N/A
+$2.6M BULL
MOD
⭐⭐
Debase ⚠️DXY
=
12
KGC
Gold
+25%
CONTESTED
+$720K BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐
Gold ⚠️DXY
NEW
13
FCX
Copper
+18%
-$149.01M
+$443K BULL
HIGH
⭐⭐
ISM+EV
=
14
ABBV
Pharma
+5%
+$296.85M
-$1.2M BEAR
HIGH
⭐⭐
Non-Discr
=
15
COP
Energy
+20%
-$9.17M
+$100K BULL
LOW
⭐⭐
Oil+War
=
16
SLB
OilSvc
+20%
-$3.70M
+$687K BULL
HIGH
⭐
SustainOil
NEW
17
BMY
Pharma
+10%
-$21.16M
+$886K BULL
MOD
⭐
Non-Discr
=
18
NEM
Gold
+20%
+$47.79M
-$584K BEAR
MOD
⭐
Gold ⚠️DXY
↓
19
AG
Silver
+20%
+$4.62M
-$1.4M BEAR
MOD
⭐
Silver ⚠️DXY
↓
20
MCD
Defensive
+8%
-$87.43M
-$256K BEAR
LOW
⭐
Pricing Pwr
↓
📊 PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION BY PILLAR
PILLAR
NAMES
COUNT
AVG YTD
TODAY'S FLOW
🛢️ Energy Producers
OXY, DVN, CVX, COP
4
+25%
DP accumulation dominant
🔧 Oil Services
HAL, SLB
2
+28%
Options BULL HIGH both
⚔️ Defense
LMT, NOC, TDG
3
+21%
Mixed — NOC/TDG bull, LMT profit-taking
⛏️ Precious Metals
GDX, KGC, NEM, AG
4
+20%
⚠️ DXY headwind active
🥇 Critical Minerals
SCCO, FCX
2
+23%
SCCO 100% at-ask
🌾 Ag Inflation
CF
1
+59%
$3.1M calls bought HIGH
🛡️ Defensives
PM, ABBV, BMY, MCD
4
+10%
PM monster flow, ABBV DP accum
🆚 v1 → v2 EVOLUTION
WHAT CHANGED AND WHY
DIMENSION
v1 (03/09)
v2 (03/18)
REASON
Energy Weight
4 names (22%)
6 names (30%)
XOP +1.93% on -1.4% SPY day. Energy is THE trade.
Oil Services
0 names
2 names (HAL, SLB)
Second-order war trade. Sustained high prices = sustained E&P spend.
Defense
2 names (LMT, RTX)
3 names (LMT, NOC, TDG)
RTX unverifiable. NOC/TDG have clean flow.
Metals Weight
5 names (28%)
4 names (20%)
DXY headwind (Mav 5.8 Rule 13). Reduced size.
Nuclear
2 names (CCJ, LEU)
0 names
Flow doesn't support it. LEU $5.3M puts. NOT a war beneficiary.
Steel/Aluminum
2 names (NUE, AA)
0 names
Both flipped bearish on options + DP.
Ag Inflation
0 names
1 name (CF)
Hormuz disrupting 1/3 of seaborne fertilizer. NEW pillar.
Mav Version
5.7.1
5.8
DXY regime check, Range validation, Earnings Reaction Regime
Total Names
18
20
Added oil services + ag inflation pillars
🎯 THE BOTTOM LINE
The war regime has CLARIFIED what works. Energy is dominant — XOP was the only green sector on a -1.4% SPY day. Oil services are the leveraged play institutions are positioning for. Defense keeps grinding. Fertilizer is the sleeper that's already +59% YTD. And PM just printed the largest single-name bullish options signal in the entire market.
Metals are still structurally right but tactically under pressure from the rising dollar. The framework now explicitly tracks this via the DXY Regime Check (Mav 5.8 Rule 13). When DXY breaks back below 99, metals weight goes back up. Until then, the portfolio overweights ENERGY + OIL SERVICES + DEFENSE + FERTILIZER — the assets that benefit from the war itself, not just the inflation it causes.
Nuclear was a thesis that looked good on paper but didn't show up in the flow. LEU's $5.3M in put buying tells you institutions don't see nuclear as a war beneficiary. The framework demands we follow the flow, not the narrative. RTX and XOM had unverifiable options data (57% and 60% unknown side). Mav 5.7.1 says you can't use LOW confidence data for convergence. So we replaced them with names that have clean signals: NOC, CVX, TDG.
The thesis hasn't changed: own what gets MORE EXPENSIVE when everything else gets more expensive. The war just told us which specific things those are.
Data: Darkpool Market Summary 03/18 (1,903 tickers), Live Options Flow 03/18 (29,811 trades), Per-Ticker Analysis files (indexes_and_misc_wl2). All options flow side-assessed per Maverick 5.8 Section 4.6 with Confidence Gate (Step 1.5) applied. YTD estimates from web search and flow data (±2%). DXY headwind flagged per Mav 5.8 Rule 13 (Dollar Governs Commodities). This is analytical framework output, not investment advice.